Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency turmoil not yet a risk to EM inflation As things stand, the recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies do not appear to be a major threat to EM inflation. Even those emerging economies that have borne the brunt of the currency... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia struggles as the rest of Emerging Europe recovers Today’s release of 2013 Russian GDP data suggests that while growth in the rest of Emerging Europe started to recover towards the end of last year, growth in Russia remained extremely sluggish. The... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market turmoil highlights region’s differences The fallout from the turbulence in EM financial markets has split Emerging Europe into two groups. One group contains Turkey, Russia and Hungary, whose currencies have been among the hardest hit in... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Russia become the next EM to come under fire? The sharp sell-off in the ruble over the past week has led some to question whether Russia could be the next EM in line to hike interest rates. For now, we suspect that the Central Bank will stick to... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Economic fallout from market turmoil should be contained It’s too early to say with any certainty what impact the current turmoil in financial markets will have on EM growth. But while we expect the countries that have been hit hardest in recent weeks –... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update 2013 GDP data show Poland is an EM bright spot It’s tempting to interpret today’s Polish 2013 GDP data, which showed that growth was as slow last year as it was in 2009, as further evidence of deteriorating growth prospects in the emerging world... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey & India likely to be the exception rather than the rule The decisions by Turkey and India yesterday to raise interest rates have inevitably led to speculation that market turbulence will force policymakers in other parts of the emerging world to follow... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey edges back to orthodoxy The operation of Turkey’s interest rate corridor means that the true extent of monetary tightening announced at last night’s emergency MPC meeting is a little less than the aggressive hike in the... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Russia hit hard by the EM sell-off The Turkish lira has been the worst performing EM currency after the Argentine peso so far this year. This has forced the central bank to announce an emergency MPC meeting later today, at which it... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling at the end of 2013 The raft of Russian activity data for December suggests that GDP growth may have picked up a little to around 1.5% y/y in Q4, from 1.2% y/y in Q3. For the year as a whole, this would imply average... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are we seeing a re-run of the summer sell-off? The sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets following the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases in December has prompted comparisons with last summer’s turmoil. But while the latest data from... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil underlines need for greater EM discrimination Market turbulence in Turkey, Ukraine and now Argentina has led to talk of a new crisis sweepingemerging markets (EMs). But the emerging world has become a far more diverse place over the pastdecade... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation likely to remain sticky in the “fragile five” The sharp falls in the currencies of the “fragile five” economies over the past half a year may cause import price inflation to rise over the next few months, particularly in Turkey and, to a lesser... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's central bank walking on a tightrope The Ukrainian National Bank’s decision to loosen its grip on the hryvnia will bring benefits in terms of restoring external competitiveness. But there are near-term risks too, including higher... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks loosen policy in spite of Fed tapering Despite concerns that the US Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases may force EM policymakers to hike interest rates, more EM central banks have loosened monetary policy over the past six months than... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for Russian property yields? The strength of the Russian investment market may suggest that our forecast for unchanged office and retail yields this year and next is too cautious. But the subdued economic outlook, the falls in... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
