Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from another oil price shock The escalation of violence in Iraq over the past week or so has led to concerns that unrest in the Middle East might trigger another spike in oil prices. As it happens, the impact on world oil markets... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to remain low Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary gave a pretty clear signal in the accompanying communiqué that further rate cuts are on the cards and that monetary... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off Poland’s political scandal The muted reaction in the financial markets to the scandal currently engulfing the Polish government is testament to the economy’s underlying strength as well as the quality of the country’s... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian bank failure puts region’s lenders back in spotlight The nationalisation of the troubled Bulgarian bank, Corporate Commercial Bank, over the weekend has put attention back onto Emerging Europe’s fragile financial sector. Given the rise in non-performing... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy on course for another disappointing quarter May’s raft of Russian activity data suggests that, following a weak Q1, the economy hasn’t made a meaningful recovery in Q2. The rebound in the manufacturing sector has continued to gain momentum, but... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s consumer boom built on weak foundations The strength of the recovery in Hungarian consumer spending has taken many, ourselves included, by surprise and retail sales are now rising at their fastest pace in a decade. However, this has been... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs take heart as Fed sticks to taper plan Financial conditions across the emerging world have eased in recent months, as continued policy support from central banks in the developed world has supported risk appetite. This in turn has reduced... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Russian markets continues Emerging European equities have rebounded over the past month, driven by Russian stocks. However, this has merely recouped losses seen earlier in the year. Looking ahead, we’re relatively downbeat on... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can the BRICs regain their vigour? Four charts to watch The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the past couple of years has been driven in large part by weakness in the four largest emerging economies, the BRICs. Much of this weakness has, in turn, been caused... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for Russia's financial markets? We do not think the recent outperformance of Russia’s financial markets and currency will last. Indeed, the ruble has already dropped back slightly over the past week or so. There are three key... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central and Eastern Europe: competitive again The pre-crisis boom years in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) led to an erosion of external competitiveness which is one reason why the recovery from the 2008-09 crisis has been so sluggish. But... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why hasn’t Bucharest property benefitted from Romania’s recovery? Last year’s fall in Bucharest capital values seems at odds with Romania’s strong economic growth. But it does appear consistent with the large degree of spare capacity generated by the prior economic... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Q1 growth flattered by gold trade The Turkish economy held up well in Q1, in spite of a deepening political crisis and an aggressive hike in interest rates. However, growth was boosted by an improvement in Turkey’s gold trade balance... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports strengthen a touch, manufacturers outperform Emerging Market (EM) export growth picked up a little in April and the rebound in Chinese exports last month suggests that it has since strengthened further. In aggregate, EM export growth is still... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe's deflation risk not as great as the euro-zone's There are growing concerns that, as the euro-zone flirts with deflation, Central Europe could suffer a similar fate. However, the drivers of the deflation threat in the region are different and seem... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
