Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRIC economies continue to underperform Growth across the emerging world appears to have remained unchanged at around 4.5% y/y at the start of this year. The recovery in Emerging Europe has faltered, but this was largely due to the weakness... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the strong outlook for Poland imply for property values? We believe that the outlook for occupier demand and rental values in Poland is among the best in Europe. But much of that good news already seems to be reflected in Polish yields which are low. Thus... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Crisis in Crimea takes its toll on Russia The escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula is already taking a toll on Russia. The economy was doing little more than stagnate even before geopolitical tensions flared up. And large scale... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further rate cuts in Hungary now look unlikely Following the cut in interest rates in Hungary earlier today, the MPC gave the clearest signal yet that the easing cycle has come to an end. Policymakers did not completely close the door on further... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets suffer as Ukraine crisis deepens Russia’s financial markets have posted heavy losses following the escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula. Indeed, Russia’s stock market and the ruble have been the worst performers among... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from the ruble’s fall The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few months is unlikely to have a major impact on Russia’s economy as a whole, but it will create winners and losers within the economy. The government is... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does buoyant Hungarian sentiment imply for property? Buoyant economic sentiment in Hungary may overstate the underlying health of the domestic economy. We would not be surprised if sentiment and GDP growth cooled later this year. Nevertheless... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five reasons why Poland will shine Having emerged from the global financial crisis in surprisingly robust health, Poland’s economy slowed sharply in 2012-13. Nonetheless, growth has started to pick up more recently and, as we explain... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China fears resurface Worries about the impact on other emerging economies of a slowdown in China have risen back to the top of the agenda over the past month. While we do not believe a hard landing is likely, we do expect... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions to remain tight The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but the bigger picture is that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers will have to keep monetary... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets complacent about Ukraine? Given the twin threats from worries about a “hard landing” in China and the crisis in Ukraine, it is perhaps surprising that global equities have not already fallen more than they have. We think that... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on frontier markets Having been the darling of international investors over the past couple of years, a number of “frontier markets” have been cast in a negative light recently. In this Update, we take a step back to... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s “temporary” rate hike to be longer-lasting Having hiked interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, it was always likely that the Central Bank of Russia would leave them unchanged at today’s (scheduled) Board meeting... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
