Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of QE and what it means for emerging markets Most of the emerging world should take the end of QE3 in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to EMs has often been exaggerated. And while some EMs look vulnerable as US rates move up, it... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price slump raises deflation danger The sharp fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will keep inflation across Central and South Eastern Europe extremely weak and could push several economies deeper into deflation... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should help to support EM equities Equities in emerging markets have fared poorly since the end of September, dragging down the price/12m forward earnings ratio in most regions to below its 5-year average, with the exception of Latin... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC shrugs off weak inflation and activity data The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to keep interest rates on hold was surprisingly upbeat. It largely shrugged off the drop in inflation in September... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: encouraging election doesn’t end political crisis The victory of pro-Western, reformist parties in yesterday’s election was perhaps the best that could have been hoped for. But with the economy in freefall and the conflict in the east of the country... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recovery not helping all EMs Although the US economy has emerged as a bright spot of the uneven global recovery, its imports from EM economies have not picked up anywhere near as much as would have been expected based on past... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank quashes hopes for looser policy The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left on hold, is likely to quash hopes that have been growing in some quarters for looser policy in response to... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: slowdown in Q3, but more timely signs of improvement Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Polish economy slowed to around 2.5% y/y in Q3 from 3.2% y/y in Q2. But it does at least look like the economy strengthened a touch towards the end of the... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Cheaper commodities to allow rates to stay lower for longer We estimate that the recent fall in commodity prices could knock 1%-pt off Emerging Market (EM) inflation over the coming months. With slower economic growth set to keep a lid on core inflation in... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How vulnerable is non-core logistics property to risk aversion? Compared to previous bouts of risk aversion, the peripheral euro-zone and emerging European economic outlook is better. And, with investors now seeing the sector as a core portfolio component, the... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two sides to Russia’s investment challenge The recent fall in the oil price has underlined the perils of Russia’s over-reliance on its energy sector and the corresponding need to develop non-energy sources of growth. Part of the route back to... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could rising risk aversion take the steam out of commercial property? The current rise in risk aversion may dent the growth in property investment volumes in H1 2015 as demand for secondary assets wanes. However, with bund yields remaining low, prime property demand and... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
