Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian activity data flattered by working day effects The pick-up in Russian activity data in September, while encouraging, may owe more to working day effects than to an underlying improvement in growth. The bigger picture is still one of an economy... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update German weakness takes its toll on CEE Of all the reasons to expect softer growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the weakness of the German economy is by far the most compelling. Indeed, we estimate that it accounts for the bulk of the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone holding back recovery (again) Global growth is likely to accelerate slightly next year but to remain well below its pre-crisis average. Strong recoveries in the US and UK will be offset by near-stagnation in the eurozone and Japan... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EMs struggle to follow China’s lead Although EM export growth slowed in August, the general trend since the middle of the year has been one of improvement and more timely figures suggest that the recovery resumed last month. However, a... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian lending slows but no sign of credit crunch… yet Lending conditions in Russia have tightened in recent months, but there is no sign yet that Western sanctions have led to a sharp drop in bank lending to the wider economy or a credit crunch on the... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM industry still struggling Industrial production (IP) growth in the emerging world is very weak. In aggregate terms, EM output grew by just 2.0% y/y in August – the slowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis. The... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish government too upbeat on growth and inflation Turkey’s recently-published 2015-17 Medium-Term Programme shows that the government remains overly-optimistic on the economy’s growth prospects and still hasn’t acknowledged the strength of underlying... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian labour data suggest weaker growth a structural problem The fallout from the crisis in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Western governments have certainly contributed to the recent weakness of Russia’s economy. But there are ominous signs –... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank Governor strikes a dovish note Following a larger-than-expected interest rate cut in Poland earlier today, Governor Belkaunderstandably maintained an extremely dovish stance at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. At the... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why slower growth is the "new normal" for emerging markets For all the recent talk of a “great moderation” in EM growth, the uncomfortable truth is that the big slowdown in the emerging world actually occurred several years ago. More recently, growth has in... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC economies the main drag on EM manufacturing September’s manufacturing PMI data suggest that the sector has lost some steam across the emerging world. The recent weakness has been largely concentrated in the BRIC economies, although there were... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira has further to fall The rise in the Turkish lira today has brought some respite to the beleaguered currency. And with the central bank now tightening monetary conditions, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest rally in... 2nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update When will Prague office rents stabilise? Net absorption is likely to fall well short of the increase in new supply in the Prague office market over the next couple of years. Therefore, we have downgraded our rental growth forecasts for the... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
