Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets too complacent on risks to Turkish outlook The recent rally in the Turkish markets appears to have been driven by expectations of continued loose monetary policy in the developed world coupled – dare we say it – with a reasonable amount of... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets may be overplaying Russia’s resilience The muted reaction in Russian markets to the growing likelihood of additional economic and financialsanctions by the EU probably reflects two things. The first is the widespread assumption that Europe... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The National Bank of Hungary cut its benchmark interest rate by more than both we and the consensus expected earlier today, but followed this up with comments that its two-year long easing cycle is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia still the biggest loser from Western sanctions The direct effects on the European economy of any sanctions-related disruption to trade with Russiawould not be trivial but the impact via energy markets may be less than many fear. Sentiment could... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The implications of the latest twist in the Ukraine crisis Russia is a vital source of global supply of a wide range of commodities, from energy to metals andgrains. At the time of writing, the likely repercussions of the shooting down of a civilian aircraft... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fresh sanctions add headwinds to Russia’s growth outlook June’s activity data have dented hopes of a sustained recovery in the Russian economy. A meaningful turnaround will require a significant rise in investment. But the latest round of sanctions on... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in the BRIC economies Growth in the emerging world’s largest economies, the BRICs, appears to have stabilised afterslowing at the start of the year. The official data from China show GDP growthedging up in Q2 on the back... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates, but easing cycle looks unsustainable The Turkish central bank continued to loosen monetary conditions today and pressure from the government means that further rate cuts look likely over the coming months. However, given the backdrop of... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising EM trade surplus a result of weaker growth The emerging market-wide trade surplus rose to a record high in US dollar terms in May. But while this would, at first sight, appear to be a positive development, much of the adjustment appears to be... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region's fragile banks come under scrutiny The vulnerabilities in Emerging Europe’s banking sectors have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. However, our latest Banking Heat Map shows that while there are some parts of the region... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private sector debt remains a concern in some EMs The legacy of the last decade’s sharp rise in private sector debt has kept credit conditions tight and domestic demand weak across a number of EMs over the past few years. And while some of them have... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth picks up, but reasons for caution Emerging Market export growth strengthened a little in May and may have accelerated further last month. Even so, the latest country-level trade figures have fallen short of expectations, and suggest... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A more challenging second half of the year The latest batch of activity data suggests that growth in Central Europe may be losing steam. Coming alongside signs that the German economy is also losing momentum, this suggests that the pace of the... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish price pressures weak, but don't point to outright deflation Recent concerns about the risk of deflation in Poland have prompted the National Bank to raise the possibility of a cut in interest rates later in the year. As it happens, most indicators of... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Private sector debt still a major concern in parts of the region Domestic demand has been subdued across much of Emerging Europe over the past five years in part due to the fact that households and firms have been deleveraging following the credit boom of the past... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
