Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further rebound in EM manufacturing The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can the Czech National Bank do? The Czech National Bank (CNB) struck a dovish note at last week’s MPC meeting and is clearly concerned about the threat of deflation. For now, we suspect that the Bank is unlikely to take further... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis fears fade but rebound remains elusive Fears of an EM-wide crisis have receded and the outlook for smaller EM manufacturers is brightening. But structural problems will continue to hold back the largest emerging economies even if, as seems... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain extremely supportive The National Bank of Poland’s MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s post-meeting pressconference, with Governor Belka flagging the possibility of an interest rate cut in the coming months... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could improved transparency drive yield compression? Ireland, Portugal, Hungary and Romania all registered strong improvements in JLL’s 2014 Global RealEstate Transparency Index. As such, in these countries the scope for yields to narrow seems to... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update June PMIs suggest Central Europe’s recovery is losing steam Last month’s manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe were disappointing. The recovery in Central Europe appears to have lost momentum in Q2, while the data provide further evidence that the Turkish... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks remain despite recent calm Financial markets in the emerging world have rallied in the past quarter as fears about the impact of Fed tapering and a hard landing in China have eased. But while the latest Capital Economics Risk... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Growth in the BRICs remains disappointing Our Tracker suggests that GDP in the emerging world, in aggregate, has expanded by around 4.5% y/y in recent months which is in line with Q1’s outturn. Some of the more open EM economies have gathered... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Bulgarian bank run limited The latest activity data suggest that growth across Emerging Europe has strengthened in recent months, but there are a few clouds on the horizon. For a start, the latest data from Germany, the largest... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Budapest retail property poised to take off? Temporary factors seem to be behind the recent strength of Hungarian retail sales growth, while the relatively high risk premium for Budapest retail yields seems merited. As such, over the next year... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC strikes a dovish note Having kept interest rates on hold earlier today, the Czech MPC maintained its dovish stance at the post meeting press conference. Given the subdued outlook for inflation, monetary conditions are... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s economy remains fragile despite positive political steps A series of conciliatory remarks from both the Russian and Ukrainian authorities in recent days has given rise to hopes that tensions in Eastern Ukraine may start to ease. But despite promising signs... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from another oil price shock The escalation of violence in Iraq over the past week or so has led to concerns that unrest in the Middle East might trigger another spike in oil prices. As it happens, the impact on world oil markets... 25th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to remain low Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary gave a pretty clear signal in the accompanying communiqué that further rate cuts are on the cards and that monetary... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off Poland’s political scandal The muted reaction in the financial markets to the scandal currently engulfing the Polish government is testament to the economy’s underlying strength as well as the quality of the country’s... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian bank failure puts region’s lenders back in spotlight The nationalisation of the troubled Bulgarian bank, Corporate Commercial Bank, over the weekend has put attention back onto Emerging Europe’s fragile financial sector. Given the rise in non-performing... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
