Emerging Europe Economics Update Impact of currency weakness on inflation has been muted The sharp fall in many emerging market (EM) currencies over the past year has not led to the big EM-wide inflation shock that some were predicting. Looking ahead, we expect inflation across the... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The “Taper Tantrum” one year on A year on from the start of the so-called “taper tantrum”, in which concerns about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed sent shock waves through EM financial markets, the vulnerabilities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stuck in the slow lane Having shown signs of picking up towards the end of last year, growth across the emerging world seems to have slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been due to several factors... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s recovery strengthened in Q1 The preliminary estimates of first quarter GDP for Central and South Eastern Europe provide further evidence of a gradual recovery in the region. The main factor behind the improvement in growth... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show strengthening recovery in Central Europe This week’s preliminary first quarter GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe are likely to show that the region’s economic recovery strengthened at the start of the year, in spite of fears of... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in the Turkish lira belies external vulnerabilities The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has taken many analysts – ourselves included – by surprise, not least because the economy still has large external vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Dollar-denominated bond yields to drift up this year The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rents and yields mark time in most markets Evidence that the first quarter’s generally encouraging economic news is providing a boost for non-euro-zone European property markets is patchy and unconvincing. Excluding the UK, only Istanbul... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin’s shift in tone a small step in the right direction President Putin’s call on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine to postpone a referendum on independence scheduled for this Sunday has once again raised hopes that a diplomatic resolution to the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC raises prospect of ending “forward guidance” The Polish MPC hinted at today’s post-meeting press conference that it may not extend its pledge to leave interest rates unchanged beyond Q3. While this could be interpreted as a sign that the MPC is... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian monetary policy to remain loose for prolonged period With inflation in Romania set to rise over the second half of this year, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts. But equally, large amounts of spare capacity in the economy... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in Polish PMI may overstate impact of Ukraine crisis The surprising fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI last month could be interpreted as a sign that the crisis in Ukraine is taking its toll on Central and Eastern Europe. However, we would be cautious... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF approves Ukraine deal, but enormous challenges remain The approval by the IMF of its $17bn financial support package for Ukraine is likely to ease concerns that the economy could suffer a near-term crisis, but severe challenges remain. The short-term... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
