Energy Update All signs point south for oil prices The combination of a Greek “no” vote, signs of rising US oil production, positive signals of a nuclear deal between Iran and the West as well as slowing Chinese demand for imported oil means that we... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Greek "no" leads us to revise our forecasts for oil and gold Commodity markets have largely responded in the ways we had anticipated to the growing risks of “Grexit”. Oil prices in particular have fallen, undermined also by the prospects of a deal with Iran and... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Oxi vote pushes Grexit probability further above 50% While yesterday’s resounding Oxi (No) vote in the Greek referendum does not guarantee a Greek exit from the euro-zone, it has surely raised the probability of such an event further above 50%. 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Nai or Oxi? Sunday’s Greek referendum result looks likely to be very close. But regardless of whether the outcome is Nai or Oxi, unless any resulting deal includes a substantial form of debt relief, the crisis... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece has room to grow outside the euro The large degree of spare capacity in the Greek economy suggests that it could perform well if the constraints of fiscal austerity and a strong currency were removed via a euro-zone exit. But Greece’s... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Greece limited for now Greece’s crisis escalated further in June, culminating in a default to the IMF, the imposition of capital controls and the expiry of the second bailout programme. In response, Greek 10 year government... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC takes further rate cuts off the table The National Bank of Romania pinned its decision to keep interest rates on hold earlier today (rather thancut them further) on concerns about contagion from the Greek crisis. And judging by the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tsipras blinks, but Grexit risks are still high The expiry of Greece’s second bailout programme and its “default” to the IMF have raised the crisis to a new level. With latest polls suggesting that a majority of voters will vote to reject the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update “Grexit” alone unlikely to deter the Fed from raising rates The Fed would, of course, be reluctant to hike rates for the first time since 2006 in the midst of another global financial crisis triggered by Greek exit from the euro. However, we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Domestic factors dominate African markets This month has seen most key African currencies depreciate and key equityindices fall. But while Europe’s latest crisis may have had some marginal effect oninvestor risk sentiment, the key drivers of... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Even a Yes vote might not prevent a Grexit A Yes vote in Sunday’s Greek referendum, if it goes ahead, will not guarantee the country’s futureinside the euro-zone. Not only is it unclear just what deal such an outcome would lead to, but... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How might property markets respond if and when Grexit occurs? Today's PMI readings were slightly weaker than expected but do not change the general picture, which is that growth is recovering on the back of both an improvement in external demand and a policy... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much of a boost would a Grexit provide to US Treasuries? The Greek authorities’ decision to call a referendum on the proposals of the country’s creditors triggered a decline of around 20bp in the yield of 10-year Treasuries, which has since been only partly... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Private consumption after a currency crisis Contrary to conventional wisdom, economic recoveries following a large devaluation have not always resulted from a surge in net exports. Instead, they have often been driven by rising consumption... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global fallout of “Grexit” (revisited) If, as seems increasingly likely, Greece defaults and exits the euro-zone within the coming months, the implications for the world economy should be fairly modest. Indeed, it could even turn out to be... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will markets remain this calm if and when Grexit occurs? Although some of the initial reaction in the markets to the decision by the Greek authorities to hold a referendum has been unwound, there is plenty of scope for renewed volatility in the event of a... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
