Europe Economics Update Can Greece default and stay in the euro? Suggestions that Greece can default but remain inside the euro-zone overlook the fact that Greece needs both a very large debt write-down and a more competitive currency. 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Greek crisis still threatens global markets The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both... 17th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis may finally be coming to a head The Greek crisis has reached a new crunch point amid signs that the Eurogroup will not grant desperately needed financial aid after next week’s meeting. Greece might resort to IOUs and/or capital... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Dollar strength alone is a poor reason to dismiss gold A common response to our positive view on gold is that the precious metal is bound to struggle in an environment of dollar strength, especially if this strength is due to increases in US interest... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Recovery prospects clouded by Greece Recent indicators have brought signs of a renewed recovery in the euro-zone economy, reflecting the beneficial effects of lower oil prices and the decline in the euro exchange rate. But the picture... 8th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece & the ECB both have a lot more work to do The more detailed list of proposed reforms submitted by Greece last week potentially provided the basis for an agreement that will allow it to meet its near-term financial obligations. But the tussles... 3rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets still under-pricing “Grexit” risks The latest surveys continue to suggest that only a minority of investors expect Greece to leave the euro within the next twelve months. Admittedly, the proportion is still significant, which shows... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Time is quickly running out for Greece Greece is running out of time to produce a list of reforms that will satisfy its creditors and secure the additional bail-out payment it requires to meet its near-term financial obligations. But even... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers look ready to start spending Buoyed by falling unemployment, rising equity prices and a boost to their spending power from a lower oil price, euro-zone consumers have become increasingly confident, with the EC’s measure of... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece still hanging by a thread While there have been few firm developments in the ongoing Greek crisis in recent weeks, the general news on the progress towards plugging the country’s short-term financing hole and finding a lasting... 20th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s output gap won’t solve its debt problems The vast amount of spare capacity in the Greek economy means that the underlying state of the public finances is rather better than the headline numbers suggest. But it would be wrong to conclude that... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Mar.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q4) March’s modest rise in the ZEW investor sentiment index suggests that hopes for the German economy have been tempered by worries over the effects of the Greek crisis. 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How low will the euro go? Rising expectations for US interest rates and an escalation of the Greek crisis could push the euro down to parity against the US dollar and beyond. But we expect it to stage a partial recovery in... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaves onus on politicians to rescue Greece While ECB President Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone today, we doubt that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme will prompt a meaningful economic recovery or eradicate the threat of... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
