UK Economics Update UK faces bigger external threats than a China slowdown The UK has become significantly more exposed in recent years to the Chinese economy, which has made a poor start to 2015. But this shouldn’t cause the UK economy too many problems – Greece remains by... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Amid the turmoil in Greece, June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI is encouraging. But the survey also suggests that the euro-zone recovery did not pick up much steam in Q2 and that there are clear risks to... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Capital controls likely, but they can’t prevent Grexit Accelerating deposit outflows from Greek banks and the ECB’s reluctance to fill the gap with further emergency loans have increased the likelihood that capital controls are imminent. We discuss the... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Grexit” mean for commodities? A Greek default has looked increasingly likely for some time and, in isolation, may have few implications for global commodity markets. However, the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would euro-zone equities fare after a “Grexit”? If Greece does default on her sovereign debt, the euro-zone stock market will probably fall further, especially if this is swiftly followed by her abandoning the euro. But even in the event of a “... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s default options This Update takes a detailed look at the forms of debt default that Greece might employ to reduce near-term financing pressures and lower its debt burden. There are various possible options, but the... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Cyprus a blueprint for Greece? Cyprus’ recent return to economic growth and its fairly swift liberalisation of capital controls might indicate that Greece could resolve its problems without leaving the euro-zone. However, there are... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further big falls in EM currencies unlikely, but expect volatility The Greek crisis appears to be coming to a head, but so far at least there has been very little negative impact on emerging market currencies. Should Greece default, and especially if that entails... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece finally blink? Greece’s creditors have made it clear that the ball is firmly in its court to make the concessionsneeded to reach a last-minute agreement. But even if Greece finally blinks, the stop-gap deal that... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the “Grexit” threat to Eastern Europe The clock is ticking for Greece to unlock much-needed funding and stay in the euro-zone. And if it fails and were to leave the single currency, the impact of this wouldn’t be felt in Greece alone. In... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can time save Greece? Greece’s latest proposals to its creditors reportedly include plans to cover its financing needs until March next year. But with its economic and fiscal position more likely to worsen than improve in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece leave the euro without also leaving the EU? Whether Greece exits the euro, and whether it can leave the single currency while remaining a member of the European Union (EU), will depend on economic, market and political realities rather than... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No California dreaming for Greece The repeated failure to agree on austerity measures together with threats of default and the prospect of IOUs have prompted comparisons between Greece’s situation and that in California in 2009. But... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt relief is still the key obstacle to a Greek solution Greece and its creditors appear to be inching slowly towards each other on some elements of a potential deal to complete the current bailout. But deciding on and implementing the debt relief clearly... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink Greece’s decision to emulate Zambia and bundle its June IMF payments has allowed another “make or break” moment to pass without either. But the continued divergences between the country and its... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
