Europe Economics Update Greferendum – key questions & answers The Greek Government’s decision to call a referendum has elevated the crisis to a higher level. Whilea deal may yet come together, a near-term Grexit now seems more likely than not. This... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The final countdown The failure of Greece and its creditors to reach a deal at last week’s many meetings has left very little time before the current bailout expires on Tuesday. Saturday’s Eurogroup meeting looks pretty... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone monetary data were consistent with continued economic recovery.But with the probability of a Greek default and Grexit building by the day, the riskof a full-blown banking crisis in the... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Greek crisis casts fresh cloud over outlook The deepening crisis in Greece has been met with a muted reaction in the financial markets inEmerging Europe and there are few signs that it has had any impact on economic activity in theregion... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Without major debt relief, a Greek deal won’t end crisis While a deal between Greece and its creditors may finally emerge in the next few days, it still looks unlikely to include the substantial debt relief needed to end the crisis and eliminate the risk of... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Grexit might be unavoidable, but it need not be a crisis In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson Prize for our submission on how the exit from the eurozone of a small country like Greece might best be managed. Given the still significant risk that... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK faces bigger external threats than a China slowdown The UK has become significantly more exposed in recent years to the Chinese economy, which has made a poor start to 2015. But this shouldn’t cause the UK economy too many problems – Greece remains by... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Amid the turmoil in Greece, June’s rise in the euro-zone PMI is encouraging. But the survey also suggests that the euro-zone recovery did not pick up much steam in Q2 and that there are clear risks to... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Capital controls likely, but they can’t prevent Grexit Accelerating deposit outflows from Greek banks and the ECB’s reluctance to fill the gap with further emergency loans have increased the likelihood that capital controls are imminent. We discuss the... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Grexit” mean for commodities? A Greek default has looked increasingly likely for some time and, in isolation, may have few implications for global commodity markets. However, the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another scary peek at Greece’s debt dynamics A look at Greece’s debt outlook using plausible economic assumptions underlines the inevitability of a substantial form of default, inside or outside the euro-zone. 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How would euro-zone equities fare after a “Grexit”? If Greece does default on her sovereign debt, the euro-zone stock market will probably fall further, especially if this is swiftly followed by her abandoning the euro. But even in the event of a “... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece’s default options This Update takes a detailed look at the forms of debt default that Greece might employ to reduce near-term financing pressures and lower its debt burden. There are various possible options, but the... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Cyprus a blueprint for Greece? Cyprus’ recent return to economic growth and its fairly swift liberalisation of capital controls might indicate that Greece could resolve its problems without leaving the euro-zone. However, there are... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further big falls in EM currencies unlikely, but expect volatility The Greek crisis appears to be coming to a head, but so far at least there has been very little negative impact on emerging market currencies. Should Greece default, and especially if that entails... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Greece finally blink? Greece’s creditors have made it clear that the ball is firmly in its court to make the concessionsneeded to reach a last-minute agreement. But even if Greece finally blinks, the stop-gap deal that... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
