Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A long road still ahead for Greece The markets responded with some relief to last week’s provisional approval by the institutions formerly known as the troika of the proposal advanced by the Greek government for a four-month extension... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain a hard line on Greece The ECB is unlikely to announce any new policies after its meeting next week as it prepares to implement the quantitative easing programme unveiled in January. President Draghi will claim that QE is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus bailout suspension maintains exit risk Struggles to implement a foreclosures bill and the associated suspension of the Cypriot bailout highlight that exit risks are not confined to Greece. Admittedly, the risk of a near-term “Cyxit” is... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets brush off concerns over Greece Financial markets in Emerging Europe have brushed off renewed concerns over Greece – indeed, equity markets in most countries have rallied over the course of this month and currencies have generally... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek concessions leave deal on shaky ground In this Update , we analyse the latest agreement between Greece and the Eurogroup to assess how much ground the two sides have won on the key issues. It is clear that Greece has made huge concessions... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A parallel currency is not the solution for Greece The idea that Greece could introduce a parallel domestic currency to improve its competitiveness while still honouring its international debts is not the solution to the country’s problems. Indeed, if... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Grexit” could boost gold now, other commodities later Weather-related factors were responsible for the biggest moves in individual commodity prices in the past week: a cold snap in the US drove up the cost of natural gas, while further rains across key... 20th February 2015 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More on the rising risk and effects of a Grexit The risk of a Grexit has risen further still this week with the positions of the Eurogroup and the Greek Government seeming to be as far apart as ever. Even if a deal is cobbled together at the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Risk of “Grexit” casts a shadow over global growth prospects Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that activity has picked up a bit in the euro-zone and remained solid in the US. However, the Greek crisis poses a growing threat to the outlook. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout if Greece left the euro? If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing risk of Greek exit under-priced in global markets Although the latest wranglings over Greece’s short-term financing needs have so far elicited little response from markets outside Greece, this calm may not last. As the German rebuff of Greece’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB highlights limits to its support The first ever publication of ECB minutes confirmed that support for the new QE programme was not unanimous, suggesting that its scale will remain limited. The account, together with the Bank’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why is gold sliding again? Today’s 2% fall means that gold has now given up most of its price gains from earlier this year. This is perhaps surprising given the ongoing uncertainty over Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, but... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
