Europe Economics Update Greece’s output gap won’t solve its debt problems The vast amount of spare capacity in the Greek economy means that the underlying state of the public finances is rather better than the headline numbers suggest. But it would be wrong to conclude that... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Mar.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q4) March’s modest rise in the ZEW investor sentiment index suggests that hopes for the German economy have been tempered by worries over the effects of the Greek crisis. 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How low will the euro go? Rising expectations for US interest rates and an escalation of the Greek crisis could push the euro down to parity against the US dollar and beyond. But we expect it to stage a partial recovery in... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s hopes unlikely to be met President Draghi was sounding rather smug last week as he announced the start of the Bank’s quantitative easing programme and forecast that inflation would rise back to target in the medium term. But... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaves onus on politicians to rescue Greece While ECB President Mario Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone today, we doubt that the Bank’s quantitative easing programme will prompt a meaningful economic recovery or eradicate the threat of... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) After consolidating their fiscal positions in 2014, the peripheral economies had a mixed start to 2015. Ireland and Italy both fared comparatively well but Portugal and Greece struggled. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A long road still ahead for Greece The markets responded with some relief to last week’s provisional approval by the institutions formerly known as the troika of the proposal advanced by the Greek government for a four-month extension... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain a hard line on Greece The ECB is unlikely to announce any new policies after its meeting next week as it prepares to implement the quantitative easing programme unveiled in January. President Draghi will claim that QE is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cyprus bailout suspension maintains exit risk Struggles to implement a foreclosures bill and the associated suspension of the Cypriot bailout highlight that exit risks are not confined to Greece. Admittedly, the risk of a near-term “Cyxit” is... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets brush off concerns over Greece Financial markets in Emerging Europe have brushed off renewed concerns over Greece – indeed, equity markets in most countries have rallied over the course of this month and currencies have generally... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek concessions leave deal on shaky ground In this Update , we analyse the latest agreement between Greece and the Eurogroup to assess how much ground the two sides have won on the key issues. It is clear that Greece has made huge concessions... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A parallel currency is not the solution for Greece The idea that Greece could introduce a parallel domestic currency to improve its competitiveness while still honouring its international debts is not the solution to the country’s problems. Indeed, if... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Grexit” could boost gold now, other commodities later Weather-related factors were responsible for the biggest moves in individual commodity prices in the past week: a cold snap in the US drove up the cost of natural gas, while further rains across key... 20th February 2015 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly More on the rising risk and effects of a Grexit The risk of a Grexit has risen further still this week with the positions of the Eurogroup and the Greek Government seeming to be as far apart as ever. Even if a deal is cobbled together at the latest... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
