Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the “Grexit” threat to Eastern Europe The clock is ticking for Greece to unlock much-needed funding and stay in the euro-zone. And if it fails and were to leave the single currency, the impact of this wouldn’t be felt in Greece alone. In... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can time save Greece? Greece’s latest proposals to its creditors reportedly include plans to cover its financing needs until March next year. But with its economic and fiscal position more likely to worsen than improve in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can Greece leave the euro without also leaving the EU? Whether Greece exits the euro, and whether it can leave the single currency while remaining a member of the European Union (EU), will depend on economic, market and political realities rather than... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No California dreaming for Greece The repeated failure to agree on austerity measures together with threats of default and the prospect of IOUs have prompted comparisons between Greece’s situation and that in California in 2009. But... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt relief is still the key obstacle to a Greek solution Greece and its creditors appear to be inching slowly towards each other on some elements of a potential deal to complete the current bailout. But deciding on and implementing the debt relief clearly... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greece on the brink Greece’s decision to emulate Zambia and bundle its June IMF payments has allowed another “make or break” moment to pass without either. But the continued divergences between the country and its... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would constitute a Greek default? At first sight, the concept of a sovereign default appears straightforward: a government either pays its debt, or it does not. But on closer inspection the picture is more blurred. For example, Greece... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Greek debt plan does not reduce exit risks Greece’s new plan for “debt management and investment-led growth” is a much-needed attempt to look beyond the completion of the current bailout and find a more permanent resolution to the crisis. But... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forget the primary surplus, Greece’s debt is unsustainable The focus on the precise targets for the primary budget surplus in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors overlooks the fact that, unless the economy experiences a miracle, its debt ratio... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking bailout funds no substitute for Greek debt relief The mooted reallocation of unused banking bailout funds could boost the amount of cash provided to Greece in a forthcoming deal with its creditors and hence buy it some valuable additional time. But... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal unlikely to tackle debt mountain Last night’s meeting between Greece’s creditors may have been an important step towards reaching a proposal to release the country’s final bailout payment. But the risk of failure is still high and... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for May offered some assurance that the modest euro-zone recovery has continued despite the ongoing Greek crisis. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A Greek deal might be coming, but it’s only a stop-gap While a deal to address Greece’s near-term financing needs might soon emerge, this will be merely a stop-gap. The main challenge of finding a lasting solution to Greece’s debt problems lies ahead. 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a referendum end the Greek crisis? A public referendum could help to break the current deadlock between Greece and its creditors. But it might only be a short-term solution and much could depend on its precise purpose and phrasing. 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Renewed recession adds to Greece’s woes The Greek crisis has intensified, with last week’s Eurogroup meeting offering little hope of near-term financial support and the Government resorting to reserves held at the IMF to make a loan... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
