Global Economics Update What would constitute a Greek default? At first sight, the concept of a sovereign default appears straightforward: a government either pays its debt, or it does not. But on closer inspection the picture is more blurred. For example, Greece... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Greek debt plan does not reduce exit risks Greece’s new plan for “debt management and investment-led growth” is a much-needed attempt to look beyond the completion of the current bailout and find a more permanent resolution to the crisis. But... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Forget the primary surplus, Greece’s debt is unsustainable The focus on the precise targets for the primary budget surplus in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors overlooks the fact that, unless the economy experiences a miracle, its debt ratio... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Banking bailout funds no substitute for Greek debt relief The mooted reallocation of unused banking bailout funds could boost the amount of cash provided to Greece in a forthcoming deal with its creditors and hence buy it some valuable additional time. But... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal unlikely to tackle debt mountain Last night’s meeting between Greece’s creditors may have been an important step towards reaching a proposal to release the country’s final bailout payment. But the risk of failure is still high and... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (May) The European Commission’s monthly Business and Consumer survey for May offered some assurance that the modest euro-zone recovery has continued despite the ongoing Greek crisis. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is the ECB to a Greek default? The ECB’s exposure to Greece is not huge and ultimately lies with the euro-zone governments that would have to recapitalise it. But a Greek default to the ECB would be a serious blow to the Bank’s... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update A Greek deal might be coming, but it’s only a stop-gap While a deal to address Greece’s near-term financing needs might soon emerge, this will be merely a stop-gap. The main challenge of finding a lasting solution to Greece’s debt problems lies ahead. 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a referendum end the Greek crisis? A public referendum could help to break the current deadlock between Greece and its creditors. But it might only be a short-term solution and much could depend on its precise purpose and phrasing. 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Renewed recession adds to Greece’s woes The Greek crisis has intensified, with last week’s Eurogroup meeting offering little hope of near-term financial support and the Government resorting to reserves held at the IMF to make a loan... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek IOUs may be the first step towards the exit With a bailout payment still not forthcoming, the Greek Government might have to resort to IOUs to pay public sector workers. While they could serve as a brief stop-gap, they would not solve Greece’s... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Market gyrations could threaten recovery The sharp rise in euro-zone bond yields and further appreciation of the euro last week might look like a response to the recent improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. But the renewed... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could a debt default revive the Greek economy? While euro-zone officials appear increasingly resigned to some form of Greek sovereign debt default, we doubt that this alone would revive the economy and secure the country’s membership of the euro. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why are the markets still so relaxed about a Grexit? Rising expectations of a Greek exit from the euro-zone are still not prompting contagion effects or more general concerns about the euro-zone economy. We fear that the markets are too relaxed. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis starts to restrain the recovery Friday’s Eurogroup meeting did not appear to result in any further progress towards a solution to the Greek crisis. While Greece has found a bit more money down the back of the sofa (or in state... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
