Europe Economics Update Is Greece’s bailout bad for the euro? The recent decline in the euro suggests that the markets see the new Greek bailout plan as less favourable for the single currency than a swift Grexit. But the driving force on the euro over the next... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek economy ever return to normal? Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek elections won’t ensure passage of bailout Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal clears some hurdles, plenty left The plan for a third Greek bailout has cleared a number of hurdles over the last week, including provisional approval by the Greek and German parliaments. But there are plenty of obstacles yet to be... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Labour market performance after devaluations: lessons for Greece? Real wages have typically fallen sharply after a major currency crisis and devaluation but have then begun recovering within a couple of years. The pace at which they have picked up has varied... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek “deal” still has major hurdles to clear While yesterday’s announcement of an agreement to provide Greece with a third bailout was greeted with understandable relief, there are still very big hurdles to be cleared before the deal is... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal will only delay the inevitable Today’s tentative deal for a new Greek bailout clearly reduces the risk of a near-term exit from the single currency. But significant hurdles must be overcome before the deal is finalised. And the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly New Greek bailout would just delay the inevitable There appears to be a chance that Greece and its creditors will come to a last minute agreement on a new bailout which avoids an imminent Greek departure from the currency union. But there are many... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Which is the greater global threat: Grexit or China? In our view, the debate over whether Greek exit from the euro or the slump in China’s stock market poses the greater threat to the rest of the world is missing the point that neither actually has to... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would OMTs contain post-Grexit contagion? If a Greek exit from the euro-zone resulted in substantial market turmoil, the ECB would probably respond by unleashing its fabled OMTs. This is a potentially powerful tool to limit contagion. But... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may have to play both villain and hero The ECB’s Governing Council may have to playboth villain and hero over the coming week, effectively forcing Greece out of the euro-zone bypulling the plug on Greek banks’ life support and then... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the euro remain resilient in the event of a Grexit? The resilience of the euro against the dollar to the deepening crisis in Greece – the exchange rate is currently close to its level at the end of May – has probably been due to a combination of... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does Plan B for Greece look like? EC President Jean-Claude Juncker’s claim that Greece’s creditors now have a “detailed Grexit scenario” may be a bluff to strengthen their bargaining position. But it is not hard to imagine what the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Time to let Greece go? While Greece and its creditors look set to make one last attempt to reach an agreement, it might very soon be time to accept the inevitable and refocus efforts on how best to manage the country’s exit... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (lower) forecasts for precious metals prices The prices of precious metals have not responded as we had anticipated to the growing risks of a Greek exit (“Grexit”) from the euro. We are therefore revising our end-year forecasts for gold, silver... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
