Europe Commercial Property Update Athens slowly turning a corner, but risks remain A lack of good quality space is positive for prime rents in Athens. But with the Greek economy far from being in good health, rental growth prospects will be constrained in spite of the recent... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Progress on Greece, ECB dovish, Ifo to offer comfort The big news this week was that Greece is finally emerging from a period of eight years under bailout programmes. But our judgement remains that the risks of a future Greek default and/or euro-zone... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal essentially a restatement of old fudges The Eurogroup seems set to agree the payment of Greece’s final loan tranche tomorrow and to offer a cash buffer to help it through the early months after it exits its bailout in August. But mooted... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone’s continued problems The large imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system indicate that all is still not quite right in the region. There are some good reasons to expect the imbalances to narrow again over the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in Greek yields dents hopes of clean bailout exit Greece has made further encouraging progress towards exiting its bailout recently. But the latest rise in bond yields highlights its vulnerability to changes in financial market sentiment and suggests... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Out of the woods? Five key questions about Greece The Greek crisis has abated and the Government may be able to exit its bailout next August as planned. But the exit will not be “clean” and the official creditors who still own the vast bulk of the... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greece GDP (Q3) Q3’s small rise in Greek GDP reflected a surge in exports, while the domestic economy remained very weak. Financial markets will therefore remain wary of lending to the Government and it seems likely... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q2) & Greek GDP (Q2) Italy’s economy is improving steadily, but is likely to continue growing more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. This leaves it vulnerable to losses of confidence, perhaps sparked by concerns about... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone will continue to impress The European economies are still in good shape, with the euro-zone benefitting from reduced political uncertainty and high levels of business and consumer confidence. We think that this strong... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens property still not without headwinds Athens recorded some of the highest property total returns in the euro-zone last year. And with the potential for prime rents to edge up and yields to fall, it could be one of the best performing... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek crisis averted for another year The deal at yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting should see Greece receive the next tranche of its bailout soon, allowing it to meet July’s debt repayments with a little time and cash to spare. Debt relief... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again Amid continued discord between the IMF and Germany, any commitment to Greek debt relief looks set to be delayed for another year. The Eurogroup has proposed new loan extensions to make the debt... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Renewed Greek recession adds to bailout risks Greece’s return to recession in Q1 has highlighted the damage done by stalled bailout negotiations and suggests that the Government’s newly-updated economic forecasts are far too optimistic. This will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Focus turns to debt relief measures for Greece Today’s agreement means that EU officials can now turn their attention to the question of debt relief for Greece. One way or another, a deal is likely to be done to allow Greece to meet repayments due... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
