Europe Economics Update What to expect from elections in Europe this year In a busy election calendar this year, the focus will be on the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. Elections for the European Parliament in May are the most high profile event, but there will... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly GDP growth slowing, but wage growth rising The latest data on economic activity in the euro-zone have been weak, but policymakers at the ECB will have been encouraged by the continued acceleration in wage growth. At its meeting on Thursday... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why Italy is not the new Greece While Italy and Greece have some similarities, the fundamental cause of Italy’s problems is not fiscal laxity but consistently weak economic growth. So rather than resulting in a sudden crisis, as has... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek budget highlights risk of fiscal slippage Greece’s draft budget for 2019 suggests that the country is taking its fiscal targets much more seriously than Italy. But a closer look at the proposed measures implies some fiscal slippage, which... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens slowly turning a corner, but risks remain A lack of good quality space is positive for prime rents in Athens. But with the Greek economy far from being in good health, rental growth prospects will be constrained in spite of the recent... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Progress on Greece, ECB dovish, Ifo to offer comfort The big news this week was that Greece is finally emerging from a period of eight years under bailout programmes. But our judgement remains that the risks of a future Greek default and/or euro-zone... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal essentially a restatement of old fudges The Eurogroup seems set to agree the payment of Greece’s final loan tranche tomorrow and to offer a cash buffer to help it through the early months after it exits its bailout in August. But mooted... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone’s continued problems The large imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system indicate that all is still not quite right in the region. There are some good reasons to expect the imbalances to narrow again over the... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in Greek yields dents hopes of clean bailout exit Greece has made further encouraging progress towards exiting its bailout recently. But the latest rise in bond yields highlights its vulnerability to changes in financial market sentiment and suggests... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Out of the woods? Five key questions about Greece The Greek crisis has abated and the Government may be able to exit its bailout next August as planned. But the exit will not be “clean” and the official creditors who still own the vast bulk of the... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greece GDP (Q3) Q3’s small rise in Greek GDP reflected a surge in exports, while the domestic economy remained very weak. Financial markets will therefore remain wary of lending to the Government and it seems likely... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What to make of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review This week the ECB released its bi-annual Financial Stability Review in which it cited weak bank profitability, an abrupt repricing of risk premia, and debt sustainability as “medium-level” risks. We... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP Breakdown (Q2) & Greek GDP (Q2) Italy’s economy is improving steadily, but is likely to continue growing more slowly than the euro-zone as a whole. This leaves it vulnerable to losses of confidence, perhaps sparked by concerns about... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
