Europe Economics Update What hope of a Greek deal now? As negotiations over Greece’s bailout stalled last night, the two sides seemed as far apart as ever. A deal still seems possible, but it might require a time-consuming Greek referendum. And in the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Time is running out for Greece The failure of the Eurogroup last week to agree even on steps for further discussions on Greece does not bode well for the emergence of a full solution at Monday’s meeting. This could prompt nerves... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Greece still need a weaker currency? Greece’s apparent improvement in competitiveness and recent economic recovery might suggest that it no longer requires a weaker currency and so would have little to gain from leaving the euro-zone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What can the Eurogroup do about Greece? Tomorrow’s meeting of euro-zone finance ministers (the “Eurogroup”) takes place against a background of extreme urgency to meet Greece’s near-term financing needs. While some solution appears possible... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 powerless to contain Greece risk With Greece once more dominating the headlines, officials from the US and elsewhere are likely to have used the G20 meeting in Istanbul to urge euro-zone governments to do all they can to prevent the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can capital controls save Greece? The Greek Government may need to resort to capital controls to prevent the flow of deposits from its banks, particularly if the ECB withdraws access to central bank funding altogether. But once the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the peripheral economies continued to strengthen their budget positions at the end of last year. But many look set to have missed their 2014 targets and Greece’s... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can GDP-linked bonds solve Greece’s debt problems? The proposed plan to exchange some of Greece’s current debts for bonds linked to the performance of the economy has some attractions. But we’re not convinced at this stage that it can make a material... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek bank collapse would probably trigger “Grexit” The Greek banking sector is once again buckling under the weight of substantial deposit outflows and market concerns about the country’s future inside the euro-zone. There is a significant risk that... 3rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to benefit from revival of Grexit concerns Whether or not Greece ultimately exits the euro, we expect the price of gold to be boosted further this year by the return of safe-haven demand as the country’s financial problems drag on. 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets still complacent on Greece’s debt challenge Our concerns that the markets have been under-estimating the challenge faced by the new Syriza-led Greek Government and the Troika in trying to reach a mutually acceptable solution to Greece’s debt... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Restructuring can’t transform Greece’s debt outlook Expectations that Greece’s fiscal problems can be addressed by a “restructuring” of its debts overlook the fact that most of the viable adjustments have already been made. Only a substantial write... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
