Global Economics Update Risk of “Grexit” casts a shadow over global growth prospects Preliminary business surveys published today suggest that activity has picked up a bit in the euro-zone and remained solid in the US. However, the Greek crisis poses a growing threat to the outlook. 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would be the global fallout if Greece left the euro? If Greece is forced out of the single currency there would clearly be major political and economic implications for the euro-zone itself, and we suspect there would initially be turmoil in global... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Growing risk of Greek exit under-priced in global markets Although the latest wranglings over Greece’s short-term financing needs have so far elicited little response from markets outside Greece, this calm may not last. As the German rebuff of Greece’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB highlights limits to its support The first ever publication of ECB minutes confirmed that support for the new QE programme was not unanimous, suggesting that its scale will remain limited. The account, together with the Bank’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why is gold sliding again? Today’s 2% fall means that gold has now given up most of its price gains from earlier this year. This is perhaps surprising given the ongoing uncertainty over Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, but... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What hope of a Greek deal now? As negotiations over Greece’s bailout stalled last night, the two sides seemed as far apart as ever. A deal still seems possible, but it might require a time-consuming Greek referendum. And in the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Time is running out for Greece The failure of the Eurogroup last week to agree even on steps for further discussions on Greece does not bode well for the emergence of a full solution at Monday’s meeting. This could prompt nerves... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Greece leave the euro? With euro-zone leaders struggling to reach a workable solution to Greece’s debt problems, the chances of a Greek exit from the currency union have risen. In 2012, Capital Economics won the Wolfson... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Does Greece still need a weaker currency? Greece’s apparent improvement in competitiveness and recent economic recovery might suggest that it no longer requires a weaker currency and so would have little to gain from leaving the euro-zone... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What can the Eurogroup do about Greece? Tomorrow’s meeting of euro-zone finance ministers (the “Eurogroup”) takes place against a background of extreme urgency to meet Greece’s near-term financing needs. While some solution appears possible... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20 powerless to contain Greece risk With Greece once more dominating the headlines, officials from the US and elsewhere are likely to have used the G20 meeting in Istanbul to urge euro-zone governments to do all they can to prevent the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can capital controls save Greece? The Greek Government may need to resort to capital controls to prevent the flow of deposits from its banks, particularly if the ECB withdraws access to central bank funding altogether. But once the... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Grexit risks rising Several developments last week arguably brought Greece closer to exiting the euro-zone than it has ever been. While the Government appeared to give ground on its demands for debt restructuring, its... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that the peripheral economies continued to strengthen their budget positions at the end of last year. But many look set to have missed their 2014 targets and Greece’s... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
