Europe Economics Update Ten key questions on the digital euro A digital euro is many years away, and the fact it is not intended to replace physical cash means that it won’t supercharge monetary policy as some may hope. However, it could become the norm for... 15th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Dec.) Industrial production edged down at the end of last year but held up reasonably well during Q4 overall. At the start of this year, we think output will have been roughly unchanged; manufactures seem... 15th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Don’t get carried away with Draghi Italy’s government of national unity looks set to have a hefty majority, making it more stable and putting it in a better position to pass fiscal measures and reforms. But we wouldn’t get carried away... 12th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Should the ECB write off government debt? A debt write-off would wipe out much of the recent increase in public debt burdens and give the ECB more scope to expand its balance sheet in the future. But the fiscal benefits for euro-zone... 9th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The return of Super Mario Mario Draghi is looking increasingly set to become the next Italian prime minister, leading Italy's recovery from the pandemic. That is likely to entail more fiscal stimulus, but structural reforms... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slow vaccinations still the big concern Our forecast that the euro-zone economy rebounds strongly hinges on Covid-19 restrictions being lifted by the middle of the year. Unfortunately, vaccine supply shortages, distribution problems and... 4th February 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Summer tourist season at risk The emergence of new Covid-19 variants, and euro-zone authorities’ slow progress with vaccinations, mean that there is a growing risk of another summer tourist season being lost. That would put a huge... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s data show that euro-zone retail sales rose at the end of last year. But restrictions have been tightened in many economies since then and non-essential shops remain closed in several... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily ECB probably more important than Draghi for BTPs A successful outcome to Mario Draghi’s attempt to form a new government in Italy would probably be good news for the country’s sovereign bonds (BTPs). But even if the current political crisis drags on... 3rd February 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone HICP Inflation (Jan. 2021) The jump in inflation in January reflects several one-off factors, some of which will be reversed in February. Headline inflation is likely to rise to around 2% by the end of the year, but will drop... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone contracted in January. We suspect that the economy has become more resilient to pandemic-related restrictions than it was a... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) Given that all of the major economies have already published their Q4 data, it came as no surprise that euro-zone GDP contracted by 0.7% q/q. With strict containment measures still necessary to... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (December) The stability of the euro-zone’s unemployment rate at just 8.3% in December highlights once again the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the pandemic. And as this support... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains the strength of inflation in January? January’s surprisingly large increases in inflation in Germany and Spain were due to a range of factors, including a rise in VAT, higher energy and holiday prices, and methodological changes. As a... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Poor start to vaccine rollout poses risks to recovery A decline in GDP in Q1 now seems highly likely, but the bigger concern is that slow vaccination programmes and concerns about virus variants may delay the lifting of restrictions in Q2 and beyond... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
