Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone retail sales took them well above their level in February, but they are almost certain to have dropped back in November. And the PMIs suggest that activity in the wider... 3rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (October) Unusually big revisions to the back data show that the euro-zone labour market was in worse shape over the summer than previously indicated. The jobless rate now appears to be falling, but the recent... 2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Chances of an ECB deposit rate cut look slim The ECB has said it is prepared to reduce its deposit rate further below zero. However, since any economic benefits would be small and it would be politically unpalatable to some on the Governing... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Nov.) The stability of euro-zone core inflation at just 0.2% in November is further evidence that the decline in inflation this year has not been primarily due to temporary factors. Both headline and core... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Nov.) The fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone in November was hardly a surprise given the tightening of restrictions. But the ESI is higher than it was in the spring... 27th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Higher GDP forecasts due to vaccine We now assume that vaccines will be rolled out in the euro-zone next year and that most of the restrictions on economic activity are lifted during Q2. As a result, demand rebounds fairly rapidly and... 26th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account points to December package The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting confirms that policymakers were becoming more concerned about the outlook for both inflation and GDP growth in late October and that they were... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Lending growth is likely to pick up in the final two months of the year as firms again take advantage of loan guarantees to replace lost revenues during lockdowns. And the ECB looks set to support... 26th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB “recalibrate” the PEPP? The ECB looks set to announce an increase in the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme in December and to extend the time for which it pledges to make net purchases and reinvestments. 25th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (November) The drop in the Composite PMI to well below 50 adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will post another sizeable contraction in Q4. But with vaccines looking increasingly likely to be rolled... 23rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How might the ECB “recalibrate” TLTROs? At its December meeting, the ECB is very likely to announce additional TLTRO operations and it may well make their terms even more favourable for banks. In this Update, we review the ways that the ECB... 20th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Higher online share to boost logistics demand by 15% Virus-driven behaviour changes that support a faster online transition will boost industrial demand over the coming years. But we don’t believe the view that higher online spending will cause rents to... 19th November 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP Inflation (Oct.) Headline inflation is likely to remain below zero for several more months and the COVID-19 restrictions in place throughout the euro-zone will keep core inflation close to zero too. 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q3), Int. Trade (Sep.) The second estimate that euro-zone GDP rose by 12.6% q/q in Q3 was little different to the “preliminary flash” estimate published a fortnight ago and means that GDP was 4.4% below its Q4 2019 level... 13th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
