Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The downward revision to the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggests the economy ended 2020 on a slightly weaker note than previously thought. With restrictions being extended and tightened in... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The lockdowns implemented at the end of last year did not lead to another surge in bank lending, probably because they were less strict and more focused on limiting social activity. But if lockdowns... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Virus poses downside risk to Q1 forecast The virus data for the holiday period in the euro-zone are not as alarming as those for the UK, but they will force governments to extend and intensify restrictions in the coming weeks. As a result... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Euro-zone consumer confidence rose in December despite the tightening of virus containment measures in many countries. But it remained very low, and with the virus spreading quickly and a new threat... 21st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lessons for 2021 Based on this year’s experience, activity should rebound quickly in 2021 once restrictions are lifted, probably during Q2. But with price pressures set to remain very weak at least for the next couple... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) The breakdown of November inflation showed that falling prices for tourism-related services remain a major drag on headline and core inflation, which were unrevised from the flash estimates. Looking... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (Dec.) & Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in the Composite PMI in December to just below 50 primarily reflected the partial lifting of virus restrictions in France. But with Germany now imposing tougher measures, the big picture... 16th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) October’s increase in euro-zone industrial output marked a decent start to the quarter and we think that production will rise in Q4 as a whole. Industry has been largely unaffected by the more... 14th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Structural factors to hold back office and retail recovery Although the near-term economic outlook remains weak, vaccine developments pave the way for a rebound in mid-2021. However, we think that the rental recovery in property markets will be more gradual... 10th December 2020 · 31 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The third estimate of euro-zone Q3 GDP confirmed that the economy staged a rapid rebound from the first lockdowns. This provides grounds for optimism about growth prospects for next year. 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus The outlook for E-Z peripheral spreads after COVID-19 We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low... 4th December 2020 · 20 mins read
Global Markets Focus The outlook for E-Z peripheral spreads after COVID-19 We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low... 4th December 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ailing economy to get policy booster A mixed bag of data releases this week leaves us happy with our forecasts for a 3% contraction in GDP this quarter and a strong recovery next year as vaccines are rolled out. Next week, the ECB will... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to make of the EU budget dispute We think the dispute with Hungary and Poland over the EU’s multiannual budget will be resolved one way or another and the EU will start to disburse the Recovery Fund during the first half of next year... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to keep supporting economy during recovery Policymakers at the ECB have already flagged that they will extend their support for the economy at their monetary policy meeting next Thursday, primarily by “recalibrating” the Pandemic Emergency... 3rd December 2020 · 7 mins read
