Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) January’s fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone supports our view that the economy will contract again in Q1. The survey also suggests that inflationary pressure... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to stay much lower in euro-zone than US Data published this week confirmed that inflation is extremely weak in the euro-zone, and we expect it to remain well below target in the coming years even as inflation rises above 2% in the US. Next... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not likely to accept tighter policy While yesterday’s ECB policy statement and press conference left many investors with the impression the Bank may be willing to tolerate higher peripheral bond yields, we doubt that this is the case... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (January) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that the tighter measures imposed are taking their toll on the economy and that services are bearing the brunt. With restrictions unlikely... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect ECB support to push peripheral yields down further While Christine Lagarde sounded slightly more hawkish than expected at the press conference following today’s ECB meeting, we still expect central bank support to drive “peripheral” government bond... 21st January 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several months As expected, the ECB left its policy settings unchanged today and, given the flexibility of its current policy of implicit yield curve control, will probably make no changes until the second half of... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Vaccine to drive recovery but risks remain The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle... 21st January 2021 · 35 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Growth in Paris office rents has further to go Despite the softness in occupier activity, prime office rents in the French capital grew at a healthy pace in 2020. And with the labour market set to recover in the second half of this year and a... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) December’s final HICP release shows that core inflation remained very weak across the board at the end of last year, with no signs that prices pressures are building. Inflation will increase in the... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2020) The Q4 Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell at the end of last year, and banks tightened their lending standards as they became more worried about the economic outlook... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy settings unchanged Having adjusted their policy settings in December, policymakers will be happy to sit out the meeting next week and repeat the mantra that they will do whatever is required to support the euro-zone... 14th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 2.5% monthly increase in euro-zone industrial production was almost entirely due to a huge increase in Ireland. Excluding Ireland, production was roughly flat on the month. Nevertheless... 13th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will households spend what they have saved? If euro-zone households spent all of their forced savings from last year, it could provide a boost to GDP growth in 2021 of as much as 3%. In practice, we doubt that it will be anything like that... 12th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.), HICP & ESI (Dec.) Activity data published this morning suggest that the euro-zone economy performed better in Q4 than we had anticipated. But the recent extensions of lockdowns make it more likely that the economy... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will rise this year, but remain very low Euro-zone core inflation is likely to rise this year as the temporary VAT cut in Germany expires and last year’s sharp falls in holiday and clothing prices are reversed. However, the inflation rate... 6th January 2021 · 4 mins read
