Europe Data Response French GDP (Q1 2021) The unexpected increase in French GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has been more resilient to the poor health situation and restrictions than we had thought. Nevertheless, with France in a full... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The slowdown in money growth in March in year-on-year terms was largely due to base effects. It was still in the double digits and should remain strong over the rest of this year at least. But with... 29th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to put more emphasis on house prices in future The ECB is likely as part of the strategic review to place more emphasis on housing costs and may initiate the creation of a parallel price index that includes them, but it will not change the... 28th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vienna office rental growth on hold until 2022 The poor near-term economic backdrop means that occupier activity will remain weak this year. But we think that the tightness in supply will prevent office rents from falling and support rental growth... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big an impact will Next Generation EU have? Next Generation EU has the potential to provide a significant stimulus to the economy over the next six years. But the impact on GDP might be smaller than most expect, while the impact on long-run... 27th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy keeping interest spending low There were no real surprises at this week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers doing little to push back against the increase in bond yields since March. But yields remain extremely low by historical... 23rd April 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) April’s small rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI was a bit of a surprise given the tightening of virus restrictions. But the survey has overstated the strength of activity in recent months, and the... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t be micro-managing the bond market In today’s ECB press conference, Christine Lagarde did not seem fazed by the recent rise in bond yields or the evidence of tighter bank lending conditions. But we suspect that policymakers will push... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to keep wage pressures in check The amount of slack in the euro-zone’s labour market diminished slightly at the end of last year. But crucially, it remained higher than it was in 2019 and it is unlikely to have fallen much further... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021) The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine blues threaten to further delay recovery News that distribution of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is being paused is another blow to Europe’s vaccination programme and reinforces our view that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to begin a... 16th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone being left behind The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK incoming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker... 15th April 2021 · 35 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stick to current PEPP purchase pace After promising a “significant” increase in bond purchases in March, the ECB Governing Council will not make any policy changes at next week’s meeting. Officials may try again to explain how they... 15th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Yet another blow to Europe’s vaccine rollout The delayed start to deliveries of the J&J vaccine is yet another blow to the rollout in continental Europe and on its own could delay things by at least one month compared to a situation in which the... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in February, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy has made a weak start to the year. Although the business surveys have overstated the strength of... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
