Europe Economics ‘Export ban’ won’t solve the EU’s vaccine woes The EU’s tougher stance on vaccine exports might help to secure some concessions and additional doses from the UK. But it will do nothing to combat vaccine hesitancy in parts of the bloc and is... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The sharp increase in euro-zone consumer confidence in March came as a big surprise given tighter restrictions across the bloc and ongoing difficulties with the AstraZeneca vaccine. That said... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March) March’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI pushed it back above the 50 mark for the first time in six months, but the recent tightening of restrictions in a number of countries suggests the... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Are data centres a viable alternative? Thanks to changing consumption patterns and structural and cyclical knocks to the traditional property sectors, both occupier and investor demand for data centres set new records last year. But, while... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No show of ECB strength, third wave underway While we assume that the ECB has stepped up its bond purchases under the PEPP this week, bond market moves have provided little reassurance that the Bank is determined to squash any rise in yields... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to remain subdued Even as inflation picks up this year, additional labour market slack, weak past inflation and a focus on jobs protection at the expense of pay increases all mean that euro-zone wage growth will remain... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed in January, partly reversing some of the widening since last April. Looking ahead, goods exports should grow fairly steadily this year on the back of the... 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will be more relaxed about inflation over 2% We suspect that the ECB will be more tolerant of inflation in the future than it has been in the past. In particular, it is likely to look through a short period of above-target inflation this year... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Europe falling further behind on the virus front A new wave of coronavirus cases in Europe, and the pause in usage of the AstraZeneca vaccine, raises the risk that the EU will fall even further behind the UK and US in its recovery from the pandemic. 17th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Feb.) The detailed breakdown confirmed that the drop in core inflation in February was largely due to the reversal of temporary factors which pushed it up in January. Looking ahead, we think higher energy... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) Industrial production rose in January and the business surveys suggest that, despite some supply-chain problems, the outlook is fairly bright. While domestic demand looks set to grow slowly by... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s dovish surprise to suppress bond yields The ECB’s statement that it expects the pace of its PEPP purchases to be “significantly higher” in the coming quarter suggests that it will, at a minimum, resist further upward pressure on bond yields... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Assessing the slack in the euro-zone’s labour market The euro-zone’s labour market has held up much better than anybody had anticipated over the past year. But the amount of slack in the market is still greater than it was before the pandemic hit... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German auto problems should be temporary January’s slump in auto production looks likely to be sustained throughout the first quarter and to knock around 0.5% points from German GDP. However, the impact on the euro-zone aggregate will be... 10th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations not a major concern for ECB Financial market-based measures of inflation expectations have returned to pre-pandemic levels, but consumers’ and firms’ expectations are generally more subdued, and the increase in industrial firms’... 9th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Price pressures building Euro-zone inflation looks set to rise sharply in the coming months as energy inflation shoots up and core inflation edges higher. Indeed, the PMI surveys suggest that manufacturing input prices are... 4th March 2021 · 12 mins read
