Europe Economics Update ECB turns hawkish and tees up 2022 rate hikes While the ECB did not change its policy settings today, President Lagarde more than made up for it in the press conference. We now think the ECB will decide in March to taper its asset purchases... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt risks becoming more acute Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened significantly in several Frontiers over the past couple of months, driven largely by country-specific factors. There are reasons to be hopeful that outright... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics BoE may hike rates to 1.25% this year despite Sunak’s help While the decisions by the Bank of England to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50% and to start reversing quantitative easing (QE) were both as expected, with four MPC members wanting to raise... 3rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Good times over for industrial rents in major ports While the recent improvement in world trade is encouraging for industrial demand in the major port markets, we don’t expect an acceleration in rental growth this year. Supply bottlenecks will still... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS survey indicated that activity in Q4 and the outlook for the short term were broadly unchanged. The survey also suggested that labour and material shortages will continue to hurt... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs for January confirm that the euro-zone economy started 2022 on a weak note but the improving health situation suggests that growth will pick back up over the rest of the... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Jan.) January’s inflation data support our view that the ECB will soon forecast inflation to be at its target over the medium term. Accordingly, we think that policymakers will end net asset purchases... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) A marked jump in lending to standing property resulted in total net lending reaching its highest level in just over 18 months in December. Although this is encouraging, several challenges remain... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Dec.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell yet again in December, to just 7.0%, capping off a remarkable year for the region’s labour market. Most of the spare capacity that built up during the pandemic now... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2021) The Q4 ECB Bank Lending Survey suggests that banks are contributing positively to the region’s economic recovery. It also suggests that, while house prices are rising rapidly, risks to financial... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) The decent rise in consumer credit in December suggests that, although consumers exercised a touch more caution as Omicron COVID-19 cases surged at the end of last year, the economy didn’t collapse... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Dec.) The tick up in mortgage approvals in December suggested that the dip in housing market activity expected after the stamp duty holiday has already come and gone, and that transactions will stay above... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The continued resilience of the manufacturing PMIs in Switzerland and Sweden in January indicates that industry will have supported activity through a restrictions-driven soft patch for services in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jan.) There was no cooling in the housing market at the turn of the year, as the Nationwide house price index recorded its largest January increase for 17 years. We suspect that prices will continue to... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
