Europe Economics Update Will the ECB be worrying about the euro? The euro hit parity against the US dollar today and we wouldn’t be surprised if it falls further. While we think it would take big moves in the trade-weighted exchange rate for the ECB to intervene in... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Swedish housing slump reinforces weak retail outlook The slowdown in the Swedish housing market has the potential to delay the recovery in the retail sector this year, as it weighs on retail sales and makes conversions to residential even less viable... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs picked up over the past month and are likely to persist over the rest of the year. That’s a particular threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further decline in Russia’s headline inflation rate to 15.9% y/y in June confirms that inflation has already passed its peak and we expect price pressures to ease further over the coming months... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US and EZ corporate spreads will stay high While the largest increases in corporate spreads in the US and the euro-zone may now be behind us, we suspect that a challenging economic backdrop will keep spreads elevated in both places for some... 8th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Hungary falling into a crisis? Hungary’s economy is now under substantial pressure. The forint has slumped and interest rates have been hiked aggressively. The only way through this is to accept the pain of a weak currency and... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Fair value analysis suggests our forecasts are on-target The rise in interest rates and bond yields has put property yields back under the microscope. Property valuations are now stretched and a traditional fair value analysis points toward a rise in... 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Soft period looms for Sweden after a strong Q2 The stronger-than-expected rise in Sweden’s GDP Indicator in May means that we will undoubtedly be revising our Q2 GDP forecast for the country higher when we publish updated forecasts in the coming... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro nears parity, energy effects erase German surplus The depreciation in the euro to its lowest level in almost two decades against the dollar this week in large part reflects investors’ view that the ECB will tighten less aggressively than the Fed. The... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Economy will give the next PM a rough ride The next Prime Minister may walk into 10 Downing Street while the economy is in the middle of a recession and just a month before a rise in CPI inflation to over 10% in October marks the worse point... 8th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think risks for the euro remain skewed to the downside Our base case is that the euro will weaken a bit further against the US dollar from here, but the balance of risks suggest to us that it could fall well below our current forecast for parity. 7th July 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Upheaval at No.10 spells fresh trouble for UK assets We suspect that the latest political turmoil in the UK adds to the reasons to expect a renewed rise in the 10-year Gilt yield, weakness in the pound, and continued trouble for the FTSE 100. In view of... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German wage settlements likely to keep inflation high Very high inflation and low unemployment are driving German unions to seek big pay rises in this year’s collective negotiations. We think nominal pay growth will be in the region of 4-5% this year and... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property yields could rise more quickly than expected Our updated yield model points to a quicker rise in property yields than our forecast suggests. While we still expect the correction to be mild, not least because of the lower share of property debt... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s small rise in industrial production in Germany was not big enough to change our view that output in the sector is likely to have declined in the second quarter. And with the timelier surveys... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures remain intense The latest data suggest that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain intense. Although core inflation edged down from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, this appeared to be down to... 6th July 2022 · 10 mins read
