UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) The smaller gain in house prices in January reported by Halifax is unlikely to mark the start of a sharp deceleration in house price growth. With the supply of homes for sale still very limited and... 7th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (December) The small decline in production in December was not quite as bad as it looks because it was largely due to a fall in construction activity, but 2021 was still a terrible year for German manufacturers... 7th February 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price gains have further to run It is likely to take longer than most expect for rising interest rates to cool the housing market. Mortgage rates have only just begun to rise from the record low reached in November, and limited... 4th February 2022 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bank signals more hikes sooner rather than later The MPC's policy statement this week cements our view that interest rates will rise further from 0.50% now to 1.25% by the end of this year and perhaps a bit further in 2023. If anything, the MPC's... 4th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes? The latest indicators raise concern that the boost to Turkey's external competitiveness from a weak lira may not be having the desired effect. Meanwhile, positive developments in Poland this week... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What’s Norwegian for ‘nepotism’?; franc in freefall! The sharp fall in the Swiss franc against the euro since Christine Lagarde’s hawkish routine on Thursday will have been music to the ears of the SNB. We think the Bank will be happy to bask in the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A hawk in owl’s clothing Highly-indebted euro-zone governments look better placed to cope with tighter monetary policy than they were when the ECB last raised interest rates, in 2011. In most cases, governments’ interest... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Stoltenberg is not the most logical of appointments Today’s appointment of Jens Stoltenberg as the new Governor of the Norges Bank is a slap in the face for the bus driver, plumber, and baker who had applied for the job, as well as the two thirds of... 4th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) In contrast to the decline at the end of last year, the construction PMI rose to its highest level in six months in January. There were also encouraging signs that supply and cost issues have started... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes in December means that sales growth slowed significantly in Q4 as a whole. While we expect consumer spending to recover over the coming months when... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Supply to limit Dublin office rental revival The recovery in Dublin offices has lagged the broader economic upturn. While demand is expected to improve in 2022, with a full supply pipeline, it is likely that vacancy will stay at relatively high... 4th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains January’s inflation surprise? Most of the surprise in January’s inflation data came from energy inflation. But core inflation was also unexpectedly strong. With underlying price pressures continuing to build, there is a good... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to fall on its dovish sword next week While the Riksbank is likely to leave the repo rate unchanged at zero next Thursday (10 th February), a hawkish shift is now long overdue. We have pencilled in a 25bp repo rate hike in November 2021... 3rd February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB signals that tightening cycle is almost done The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the second consecutive month today and the accompanying communications were less hawkish than expected and suggest that there... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
