BoE Watch February rate hike, and three more on the way in 2022 The further surge in inflation coupled with the rapid tightening in the labour market will probably prompt the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to raise interest rates from 0.25% now to 0.50% on... 27th January 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We think CEE currencies will weaken despite rate hikes We expect the major central and eastern European (CEE) currencies to depreciate against the euro this year. We think that the Czech koruna will continue to fare better than the other CEE currencies... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The spread of the Omicron variant took some of the steam out of the property recovery in Q4 2021, but the latest RICS results are consistent with further growth in 2022. They also highlight continued... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to hold its course amid inflation uncertainty The impact of Omicron on the economy, the recent sell-off in equity and bond markets, and even the geopolitical tensions over Ukraine are unlikely to worry the ECB’s governing council unduly. Instead... 27th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The centre holds up for Paris office rents The early data indicate that Paris offices recovered last year, though much of this reflected strength in the core CBD market. With the economic background supportive and supply relatively contained... 27th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Bonds & Equities Four points on Russia’s market sell-off The sell-off in Russia’s financial markets in response to the reassessment of the likelihood of conflict with Ukraine has pushed up the risk premium on Russian assets to a similar level to that which... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone? A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However... 25th January 2022 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Tech sector valuations may have even further to fall Even though the valuations of technology stocks have, in general, already fallen sharply in recent weeks, we suspect they may decline further over the next couple of years. This is one reason why we... 25th January 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London transactions outperform, but not prices The jump in transactions during the pandemic was larger in London than other regions as the market didn’t experience the same drop in supply as elsewhere. That reflected many existing homeowners... 25th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising house prices strengthen ECB hawks’ case Euro-zone inflation would be even further above target if owner-occupied housing costs were included in the region’s headline measure. Their formal inclusion won’t take place for a few years yet, but... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (January) The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Dec.) Stronger tax revenues were just enough to offset big rises in debt interest costs in December. But we don’t expect this to last: further rises in inflation will mean borrowing soon overshoots the OBR... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jan.) The third consecutive decline in the composite PMI indicates that the Omicron variant weighed further on activity in January. But the recent fall in COVID-19 cases, relaxation of restrictions and... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The small decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that Omicron has taken a toll on the services sector, though Germany performed surprisingly well. We think governments will ease restrictions... 24th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Annual property returns hit a seven-year high Commercial property ended last year strongly. Annual rental growth climbed to a five-year high, while annual total returns crossed the 20% level. This was largely the result of dynamism in industrial... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
