Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s small rise in industrial production in Germany was not big enough to change our view that output in the sector is likely to have declined in the second quarter. And with the timelier surveys... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures remain intense The latest data suggest that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain intense. Although core inflation edged down from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, this appeared to be down to... 6th July 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun.) The third consecutive monthly fall in the construction PMI suggests that that growth in development activity is slowing. The near-term outlook has also deteriorated, with growth in new orders easing... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (May) The small increase in euro-zone retail sales in May, after a steep fall in April, suggests that high inflation remains a drag on consumption. Although re-opening effects may have boosted consumption... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Another look at Italy’s debt arithmetic It seems most likely that Italy will be able to put its public debt ratio on a gradual downward trajectory, even as interest rates rise, by running primary budget surpluses. But if 10-year government... 5th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) June’s final Composite PMIs confirmed the message from the flash release that activity is softening and that firms expect weaker conditions ahead. And price pressures remain intense throughout the... 5th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel joins the 50bp rate hike club The Bank of Israel stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 50bp interest rate hike, to 1.25%, as it dropped its commitment to “gradual” interest rate hikes. This suggests that similar moves may... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Russian gas export ban would hold back recovery If Russia decided to end all exports of natural gas to Japan, we suspect that Japan’s GDP would fall by around 0.5%. However, the hit could be larger as there is now less scope to reduce energy usage... 4th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jun.) Although Swiss inflation remains enviably low compared to many advanced economies, the further increase in the core rate will only strengthen the SNB’s resolve to squeeze price rises out of the system... 4th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: recovery in China but weakness elsewhere The S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI hit its highest level in over a year last month, but that was almost entirely driven by a recovery in China. The surveys softened across most of the rest of the... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Corporate FX debt risks in Turkey, EU fund hopes Recent plans announced by the Turkish authorities to restrict access to lira-denominated loans to corporates with large FX holdings add to the growing risks stemming from corporates' large FX debts... 1st July 2022 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in confidence not enough to rule out aggressive rate hikes Signs that business confidence has started to ease may provide the Monetary Policy Committee with some reassurance that firms' pricing power will soon soften. But the danger that bigger increases in... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank shifts up gears but rate “summit” is in sight While the Riksbank stepped up the pace of tightening this week, the fact that Swedish households are highly sensitive to rate hikes, and the likelihood that weakening activity will soon reduce the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading for a hawkish 25bp hike Despite President Lagarde’s hawkish language at Sintra and inflation once again coming in higher than expected in June, we think the ECB will raise rates by “only” 25bp later this month. However, with... 1st July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) The further big increase in the euro-zone inflation rate came despite a substantial fall in Germany that was driven by regulatory changes, and shows that underlying price pressures remain... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (May) The more muted rise in unsecured borrowing in May suggests the cost of living crisis and recent plunge in consumer confidence are prompting households to exercise a bit more caution. That adds to... 1st July 2022 · 3 mins read
