Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on Italy’s presidential vote Italy’s presidential election, which will begin next week, threatens to reignite political uncertainty that has been quiescent since Mario Draghi became prime minister last year. While we agree that... 21st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan.) January’s broadly unchanged reading for consumer confidence suggests that household spending might be holding up fairly well, despite a surge in Covid cases. We expect consumption to recover quickly... 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian markets feel the heat, oil nearing $90pb Ukraine's financial markets remained under pressure this week as investors appear to have priced in a more serious outcome regarding Russia-Ukraine tensions. A positive reaction to today's talks... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy inflation will fall, but core will stay around 2% The key event this week (for us at least) is the publication of our forthcoming European Economic Outlook setting out forecasts for 2022 and 2023. In brief, we think the euro-zone will come through... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Green bond germination in Denmark The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Economy less favourable for whoever’s in Number 10 Although it is hard to predict whether by the end of next week Boris Johnson’s reign as Prime Minister will be solidifying or crumbling, we know that whoever is in Number 10 over the next year will... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in retail sales volumes in December was bigger than expected and supports our view that the Omicron outbreak in the run-up to Christmas may have dragged down GDP by 0.5% m/m, if not more. 21st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated... 20th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB increasingly split over inflation outlook 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Real wage squeeze unlikely to be a rerun of 2008-14 The looming squeeze on real wages means that the near-term outlook for consumption and GDP has weakened. That said, we don’t expect anything as bad as the squeeze in 2008-14. In fact, real household... 20th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial yield falls set to slow The industrial sector had its best year in over three decades in 2021 as demand soared and supply struggled to keep up. Although we expect the sector to perform well again this year, we don’t think... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: rates held in pursuit of “new economic model” Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) followed kept its one-week repo rate on hold at 14.00% today and, even though inflation is likely to breach 40% in the coming months, President Erdogan is unlikely to... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) Euro-zone inflation is likely to have peaked at 5% in December, with energy inflation set to fall sharply this year. But we think that core inflation will settle at around 2%, prompting the ECB to... 20th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will resume hikes in March After twelve years in the job, Øystein Olsen was never going to spring a surprise at his last meeting in charge of the Norges Bank. Instead, the Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor With the notable exception of Turkey, net capital outflows from emerging markets have eased over the past month. However, the global backdrop for EMs this year will be challenging, particularly for... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
