Europe Economics Update

Five questions on Europe’s energy crisis response

European policymakers have been discussing how to tackle skyrocketing energy prices in the region to ease the financial pain for households and firms this winter. In this Update, we answer five key...

12th September 2022 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Renewed weakness ahead for German retail

The rapidly worsening economic backdrop has put the brakes on Germany’s prime retail recovery. After showing strength in the second half of last year, take-up has now slowed in most of the main...

9th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

Europe should avoid widespread gas rationing

We don’t think Europe will be forced to widely ration natural gas this winter because the sky-high price should attract sufficient LNG from abroad to replace reduced imports from Russia, whilst also...

8th September 2022 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Tide to turn quickly for euro-zone industrial

While euro-zone prime industrial rents surprised on the upside in Q2, investor sentiment also turned more rapidly than we expected. Tight supply will support rents this year, even as economic activity...

6th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Ongoing energy supply concerns could weigh on the euro further

The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline strengthens the “stagflationary” headwinds facing euro-zone economies and reinforces our view that the euro is likely to fall further against the...

5th September 2022 · 7 mins read

Global Markets Update

We think EZ peripheral spreads will rise further

We continue to expect euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to rise over the remainder of the year, owing to a combination of deteriorating appetite for risk, higher policy rates, and ambiguity about the ECB...

5th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany

Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package...

5th September 2022 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

All sectors overvalued despite rise in property yields

Despite a rise in property yields, increases in alternative asset yields led to a further deterioration in European property valuations in Q2. (See Chart 1.) While industrial and office valuations...

2nd September 2022 · 6 mins read

Global Markets Update

Treasury and bund sell off may be mostly over

While US and euro-zone 10-year government bond yields have surged over recent weeks, we think this sell-off has mostly run its course – we expect these yields to end this year a bit below their...

2nd September 2022 · 3 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB has some catch-up to do, starting with 75bp hike

There is a case for the ECB to raise rates by 1% next week. But that would probably be too much for many policymakers to bear, so we expect them to step up the pace of tightening with a 75bp hike. It...

1st September 2022 · 8 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Have the prospects for Warsaw industrial changed?

The outlook for industrial demand in Poland has improved dramatically because of the pandemic and the rapid growth of ecommerce. This is set to keep prime industrial rental growth in Warsaw higher...

1st September 2022 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Prospect of more ECB hikes may not push up yields or the euro

Even if investors continue to raise their near-term expectations for the ECB deposit rate, we doubt this will push up long-dated euro-zone yields or help the euro recover against the US dollar.

31st August 2022 · 7 mins read

Europe Economics Update

ECB as hawkish as Fed at Jackson Hole

While attention has understandably focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech made last Friday, there were also important interventions over the weekend by ECB policymakers. These...

29th August 2022 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Italy’s gas crisis

The surge in natural gas prices is a key reason why we expect Italy to fall into recession soon. If Russia stopped exporting gas to Europe entirely, Italy would suffer more than most but less than...

26th August 2022 · 5 mins read

Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Scandinavia & Switzerland: The property cycle turns

The Nordic and Swiss economies performed relatively well in Q2, while prime rents showed further rises in Scandinavian office and industrial markets. However, the economic outlook has darkened, which...

26th August 2022 · 5 mins read