UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (October) Although the headline ZEW investor sentiment indicator edged up in October it is still at a very low level, while the current conditions index – which is more closely corelated with GDP – actually... 18th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt Gilt yields will perform a full Truss-style U-turn While today’s announcements by new UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt have been welcomed by the Gilt market, we don’t expect the 10-year Gilt yield to fall too much further in the near term. 17th October 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Offices see biggest fall in our rental downgrade With interest rates now higher, we have made downgrades to our forecast for UK GDP growth. We expect that this will bring a sharper deceleration in rental growth at the all-property level, with falls... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update High FX-hedged Gilt yields may be short-lived The spread between the 10-year Gilt yield hedged in US dollar terms and the 10-year Treasury yield has widened dramatically of late. But given our forecasts for short-term interest rates in the UK and... 14th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks dominate, French strikes fuel pay pressure Even the hawks on the ECB Governing Council have seemed reluctant to call publicly for a 100bp hike at the Bank’s late-October meeting, but we still think that is the most likely decision and expect... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2023) The Q3 credit conditions survey doesn’t capture the impact of the market turmoil of recent weeks, with the deadline for responses falling a week before the “mini-budget”. Nonetheless, it shows rising... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Consumer Prices (September) The reversal of temporary measures to reduce travel costs played a big role in the surge in German inflation in September. But underlying price pressures remain strong and broad based. We continue to... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) While optimists can still point to limited supply, a fifth consecutive drop in new buyer enquiries in the RICS survey in September has convinced a majority of surveyors that house prices are heading... 13th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Beware of misinterpreting the fall in UK inflation compensation A generous interpretation of the recent plunge in inflation compensation in the UK is that it has reflected confidence in the Bank of England’s commitment to tighten monetary policy by as much as it... 12th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The 1.5% m/m increase in industrial production in August was partly due to an out-sized rise in Ireland and was not enough to reverse the fall in July. All the evidence suggests that euro-zone... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Where are industrial rental prospects strongest? We think online demand will continue to be an important driver of relative rental prospects in European industrial markets as we move into the post-pandemic era. But the outlook for traditional demand... 12th October 2022 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Update A full suite of revised UK Housing forecasts Its widely accepted that the jump in mortgage rates from 1.5% last autumn to 6% means that a significant fall in house prices is now inevitable. In this Update we set out how we came to our forecast... 10th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggles, Danish central bank intervenes A raft of economic data for Sweden, including August’s GDP indicator, published this week added to the evidence that its economy is slowing and heading for recession this winter. Meanwhile, Denmark’s... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 100bp ECB hike on the cards; recession looks certain The account of September’s ECB meeting and the latest economic data make a 100bp rate hike by the ECB this month, which would bring the deposit rate to 1.75%, look increasingly likely. Next week... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger fall in euro-zone capital values on the cards Recent revisions to our euro-zone interest rate and bond yield view suggest there is upside risk to our forecasts for prime commercial property yields. With the deteriorating economic outlook also set... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
