Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak leu not a silver bullet for Romania’s CA deficit Romania’s current account deficit is likely to rise to almost 9% of GDP this year. While a weaker currency would help to reduce this shortfall, structural reforms are needed to boost competitiveness... 21st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures provided more evidence that the government’s fiscal position is worse than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. This may limit the ability... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t stop Italy’s spreads from widening It looks like Italy is heading for an early general election. While that won’t necessarily cause an economic and financial crisis, bond spreads are likely to widen regardless of what the ECB announces... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we... 20th July 2022 · 26 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Tightening credit conditions point to higher yields The Q2 ECB bank lending survey showed a tightening in credit standards for commercial property lending in the first half of the year, with expectations for a further squeeze in H2. With the cost of... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (June) Final inflation data for June confirm that price pressures are very strong. Whether or not the ECB hikes by 50bp on Thursday, we think it will be the beginning of an aggressive 12 months of tightening... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to remain historically high Europe’s heightened demand for LNG will be enough to keep prices high this year and into 2023, particularly as LNG supply growth will be fairly limited. 18th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Lisbon industrial yields near a turning point Despite the Q1 surge in investment activity, we think a weak rental outlook and stretched valuations will deter a sustained increase in investment, limiting the scope for further falls in prime... 18th July 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics The policies of the 5 wanting to be in Number 10 Even though the two candidates that are leading the race to be the next Prime Minister have pledged to loosen fiscal policy by less than the other candidates, whoever takes over as Prime Minister on 6... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Super-sized rate hikes rising up the policy menu The case for frontloading tightening cycles in Norway and Sweden is getting more and more compelling, not least because prolonging the inevitable would probably just raise the risk of harder landings... 15th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy supply concerns mount, NBP’s wishful thinking Governments across Central Europe ramped up efforts this week to prevent possible shortages of energy during the winter, but there is a growing risk of energy rationing that would push the region's... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Three key calls on the eurozone We published our latest European Economic Outlook this week, which sets out our view that the euro-zone is heading for recession and that core inflation will remain above 2% for several more years... 15th July 2022 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Cautious lift-off, bigger hikes to come ECB policymakers are likely to follow through on their intention to raise rates by 25bp next week and signal that a bigger rise (probably 50bp) is coming in September. We suspect that the Bank will... 14th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italian political drama complicates ECB debate If the return of political instability in Italy leads to an early election, government bond spreads are likely to widen, whether or not the ECB agrees the details of the Transmission Protection... 14th July 2022 · 3 mins read
