Europe Economics Update Pace of hikes to slow, but deposit rate will still hit 3% After raising rates by 75bp today, the ECB laid the groundwork for a slower pace of tightening to come. But we still think that the deposit rate will reach 3% next year. And while the Bank will set... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) The slowing economy and cost-of-living crisis are now having a clear impact on occupier demand, with surveyors reporting the first drop since the start of 2021. That has fed through to rent and... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki office vacancy to edge higher Helsinki office vacancy jumped in Q3 and is likely to trend higher over the next couple of years as occupier demand weakens, completions rise and there are fewer office-to-residential conversions. As... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Goods trade set to fall as global recession takes hold There is growing evidence that weakening demand in major economies is taking a toll on world trade. While trade volumes rose in August, early reporting Asian economies revealed a decline in imports in... 26th October 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial set to underperform Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Core inflation pressures strongest in CEE A closer look at core inflation across EMs suggests that underlying price pressures have started to ease. But they remain very strong by historic standards in most countries – and particularly so in... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Market strains create new dilemmas for central banks As the recent breakdown of the UK Gilt market illustrates, policymakers face an increasingly difficult trade-off between combating inflation, supporting economic growth and maintaining financial... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (September) Money and lending growth accelerated in September, but the latest Bank Lending Survey revealed that there was a sharp drop in loan demand and that banks have become much more cautious about lending... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Europe’s natural gas price will be higher next year We expect European natural gas prices to be high in 2023 as the EU will need to replace Russian gas supply for the entire year. This means demand for LNG imports will be strong, even if gas... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Tightening cycles have further to run Prospects for economic activity have deteriorated further in recent months as headwinds to growth have become stronger. Inflation looks set to remain high for longer, eroding households’ real incomes... 25th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Unpacking the fall in the valuation of the UK stock market Despite stabilising a bit recently, the valuation of UK mid- and large-cap equities in general has fallen recently in both absolute terms and relative to comparable indices elsewhere. While that doesn... 25th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Oct.) The Ifo Business Climate Index held up better than expected in October but was still extremely low. With other business surveys also persistently weak, we think Germany will experience the deepest... 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (October) 25th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will PM Sunak usher in a period of calm after the storm? Given all the turbulence in the UK’s government bond market over the past month or so, the limited reaction to today’s news that Rishi Sunak will be its next prime minister (PM) may seem surprising... 24th October 2022 · 5 mins read
