Emerging Europe Economics Update Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further... 12th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Activity Data (Feb.) Turkish industrial production and retail sales figures for February showed that the impact of the earthquakes on the economy was larger than we and most others had anticipated. But we think this will... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Banking troubles won’t stop ECB hiking to 4% We think that the recent stress in the banking sector has had little impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone. While there were significant outflows of bank deposits in the five... 11th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weighing up the risks from open-ended property funds In light of the recent flare-up in commercial property related financial distress and news that investors have been rapidly pulling money out of property funds in Europe, we are re-sending this Update... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rate hikes may come sooner rather than later We think the Bank of England may opt to raise interest rates further from 4.25% sooner rather than later. Our central forecast is for interest rates to rise from 4.25% now to a peak of 4.50% and for... 6th April 2023 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook beyond Q1 bleak, more Italy energy support The latest survey and activity data suggest that, after stagnating in Q4, euro-zone GDP returned to growth in the first quarter. But a recession in the remainder of 2023 still seems likely to us... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update The risks to banking from commercial property Real estate exposures have not been central to financial developments in Europe over recent weeks, but, as property prices correct after a decade of steady expansion, some strains are likely to emerge... 6th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak CEE activity data, Romania’s FX reserves surge The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most countries again in Q1. Downside risks to Q2 have also... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
London Housing Markets Chart Pack Affordability shapes London performance The Land Registry report that London house price growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in January and more timely data based on mortgage approvals show a 2.2% y/y fall in prices in Q1. The detail suggests that... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Mar.) The March headline CIPS Construction PMI reversed some of its surprise jump in February, but it remained in expansionary territory. That was driven by the commercial sector, where strong expectations... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Mar.) The third consecutive monthly increase in house prices recorded by Halifax suggests that pricing is proving remarkably resilient to higher mortgage rates. But it is at odds with the consistent fall in... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The second consecutive big increase in German industrial production in February all but confirms that GDP returned to growth in Q1. The industrial resilience may continue in the coming months but we... 6th April 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resilient, but recession still likely Recent data suggest the economy’s resilient end to 2022 was sustained at the start of this year. But while the worst of the falls in real household incomes are in the past, we still think around two... 5th April 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London office capital values can’t deny gravity forever London office capital values fell by a relatively modest amount in the second half of last year and monthly data show values stabilised in the first two months of 2023. But that has left London office... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
