Global Markets Update Taking stock of market moves amid the turmoil While the backdrop has shifted dramatically, we still think there’s a strong case for our existing forecasts of a further rally in long-dated bonds by the end of the year, and some near-term strength... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (February) The strength of wage growth and core inflation will reinforce ECB policymakers’ conviction that, provided the region’s banks don’t come under further sustained pressure, their tightening cycle is not... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to continue tightening We don’t think the collapse of SVB, problems at Credit Suisse and volatility in markets will deter the Norges Bank from raising its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.0%. If anything, the risks are... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Banking stress raises another dilemma for central banks We are resending this Stress Monitor to include clients of our Global Economics Service. The ghosts of 2008 have made a sudden reappearance. Many metrics of core market functioning have worsened... 16th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily ECB carefully stays the course The ECB successfully pulled off a particularly tricky tightrope walk today, maintaining its commitment to price stability without prompting more volatility in bank stocks or other markets. That said... 16th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB prioritising inflation fight Investors have taken today’s 50bp rate hike by the ECB as dovish, and the peak deposit rate now priced into markets is between 3% and 3.25%. We think the risks are skewed towards rates going higher... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch 25bps hike, if banking situation doesn’t escalate The concerns over the health of the global banking system and the easing in domestic inflationary pressures mean it is almost 50:50 between the Monetary Policy Committee pausing/ending its series of... 16th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Bank of England’s March interest rate decision 1679583600 How will the Bank of England play its March rate decision following recent turmoil in the US and European banking sectors?
Capital Daily ECB decision is a test of the conundrum facing central banks The renewed sell-off in global bank equities today, centring on Credit Suisse, is evidence that concerns about the resilience of the banking sector are now spreading outside of the US. There are still... 15th March 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget – Generous, but lacking a long-term growth plan The Budget has taken a bit of a backseat given the renewed worries about the health of the global banking system, but the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, was a bit more generous than we expected and probably... 15th March 2023 · 14 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) The rise in industrial production in January was entirely due to strong growth in Germany and Ireland, with all other major euro-zone economies recording a fall in output. We expect industry to... 15th March 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rental growth resilience won’t last Even as the economy has slowed nominal all-property rental growth has held up relatively well. But that largely reflects the impact of high inflation, which is now falling. In any event, underlying... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
