UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The 0.1% monthly fall in the Halifax house price index in September echoed the message from Nationwide earlier this week that house prices have now stalled. Given the sharp rise in mortgage rates over... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recession will be deeper than most expect A recession has looked unavoidable for some time and we now think it will be deeper than most anticipate. Manufacturing output is already declining and services activity is slowing. What’s more... 6th October 2022 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep.) The surprise increase in the construction PMI reflected an improvement on the supply side, as easing demand cut delivery times and improved contractor availability. But a slowing economy and rising... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Aug.) The 2% year-on-year decline in euro-zone retail sales in August will probably look mild by the end of the year. Measures of consumer confidence point to sales falling much further, which seems quite... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany €200bn fiscal shield won’t prevent recession Germany’s huge off-budget facility designed to compensate households and businesses for the increase in energy prices is bigger than measures announced elsewhere. However, we don’t expect actual... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker demand to limit Paris office rent growth Falls in Paris Centre West vacancy are expected to support a further pick-up in prime office rents in the second half of the year. But this will be short-lived, with the deteriorating outlook for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property capital values set to fall by 15% Looser-than-expected fiscal policy following the mini-Budget means we now expect Bank Rate and gilt yields to be higher. All else equal, that would push the spread between the 10-year yield and all... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) The surprise jump in mortgage approvals in August probably reflected a rush to lock in mortgage offers as interest rates surged. There is a possibility that could be repeated next month, but... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Chinese tourism drought will add to luxury retail woes In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Europe Commercial Property Update to clients of our UK Commercial Property Service. With no end in sight to China’s zero-COVID policy, the... 30th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A closer look at temperature and gas use in Europe With the winter fast approaching and concern about natural gas supply from Russia looming large, we reviewed the relationship between temperature and gas demand in the EU. The key point is that the... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) The stall in house prices in September was little surprise given the growing downward pressure on demand from rising mortgage rates. We suspect that, despite the reduction in stamp duty announced last... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Italian investment to drop back in the coming quarters While the market reaction to the Italian election was muted, we think that the worsening economic outlook and concerns about debt sustainability will result in increased risk aversion toward Italian... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Fiscal credibility key for Gilts & sterling Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Italy’s new leadership may still put more pressure on spreads Italy’s new governing coalition doesn’t seem to have troubled investors for now, but we suspect worries about debt sustainability will still result in long dated Italian government bonds struggling... 26th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: Property values set to fall in 2022-23 This email is being resent due to an error with the previous publication The latest data suggest that a property repricing is already underway in response to higher interest rates and stretched... 22nd September 2022 · 18 mins read
