Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct.)

October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies.

3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s economy posted a strong 2.6% q/q expansion in Q3, driven in large part by rising oil output. The subsequent OPEC+ cuts mean that that boost will fade over the coming quarters and we...

31st October 2022 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Oil output cuts to drive sharper Gulf slowdown

OPEC+ cut its oil production quotas by 2mn bpd in November and strong compliance with the agreement will hit GDP growth in the Gulf economies harder than other members of the group. The result is that...

26th October 2022 · 10 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The IMF & MENA, Saudi’s industry strategy, oil demand

Tunisia’s staff-level agreement with the IMF for a new deal should reduce concerns of a messy balance of payments crisis, but a sovereign debt restructuring still looks likely. Egypt, meanwhile, looks...

20th October 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis

The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit...

13th October 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Saudi inflation edged up to 3.1% y/y in September largely due to stronger food and housing inflation, but we think that the headline rate has now peaked and will drop back over the coming months and...

13th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ decision fallout, Egypt’s IMF deal

The decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd from November will fall disproportionately on the Gulf members - Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. This clearly presents a downside risk...

6th October 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

OPEC+ cut highlights Saudi shift away from the US

Yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd adds to signs that, in a world economy that is fracturing, Saudi Arabia is tilting away from the US and leaning towards a China...

6th October 2022 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

PMIs (Sep.)

The batch of PMIs for September continued to paint a picture of economic divergence between the Gulf economies and the rest of the Middle East and North Africa. With fiscal policy set to be loosened...

4th October 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+, Lebanon re-pegging, Morocco rates, MbS to PM

Reports suggest that OPEC+ is weighing up a cut to output quotas for the second meeting in a row next week, presenting a downside risk to our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts in the Gulf...

29th September 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Egypt: the pound, central bank, and the IMF

The Egyptian pound has continued to weaken as the central bank has taken tentative steps towards a more flexible exchange rate, and we think that the currency needs to weaken further to address the...

29th September 2022 · 14 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

What does MbS’ promotion mean for Saudi Arabia?

The appointment of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) as prime minister yesterday evening cements his role as the head of the government. The crown prince already held significant...

28th September 2022 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE oil capacity, Egypt FX restrictions, Saudi-rupee trade

The UAE is seeking to raise oil production capacity more aggressively than previously planned as it aims to get ahead of peak oil demand and capture oil market share. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia also...

22nd September 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi mortgage lending a slow-burning risk

Mortgage lending in Saudi Arabia has ramped up in recent years as the government has tried to push up homeownership among Saudi nationals. Banks are well positioned in the event of future property...

20th September 2022 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MPC meetings galore, Tunisia shortages and debt default

Central banks in the Gulf are set to hike interest rates next week in line with the Fed, and we think that the Central Bank of Egypt will join the party and resume its tightening cycle next Thursday...

15th September 2022 · 6 mins read