Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil output cuts driving Gulf slowdown Economic growth across the region will be much weaker this year than last and our forecasts are generally below the consensus. We think regional growth will come in at just 1.4%, one of the weakest... 21st June 2023 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly SAIBOR surge, CBE meeting, Tunisia-EU loan Saudi Arabia’s interbank rates hit their highest level in over two decades this week and, if officials want to prop up credit growth, the Saudi Central Bank may need to step in once more to provide... 15th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May 2023) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate rose a touch to 2.8% y/y in May, as an acceleration in non-food inflation more than offset the further slowdown in food inflation. We think the headline rate will resume... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi may struggle to sustain loose fiscal stance Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position has deteriorated over the past few quarters on the back of lower oil prices and production, and officials are increasingly doing all they can to sustain the current... 12th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi sporting fever, OPEC+ fallout, Kuwait elections Saudi Arabia has dominated the sports headlines this week with big-money moves for global football stars a sign that the Kingdom is recycling large current account surplus. But the move does raise... 8th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy to contract on back of oil output cuts Saudi Arabia pushed through another oil production cut at the OPEC+ meeting, but, it will come at the cost of slower economic growth and we now think the economy will contract by 0.5% this year. The... 5th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi mortgages and 2022 census This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting will be closely watched. We expect that the group will stand pat on Sunday, but OPEC+ has a history of springing surprises. Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s 2022 Census revealed... 1st June 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly BCT independence, Saudi-OPEC+, Egypt reforms The independence of Tunisia’s central bank has come under threat this week, which will only diminish any remaining hopes that the country’s IMF deal will be approved. Elsewhere, comments from Saudi... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt reform progress, Saudi public finances Egypt’s government laid out fresh efforts this week to attract greater foreign investment into the country which also coincided with the first state asset sale in nearly a year. But, unless the... 18th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate was unchanged at 2.7% y/y in April, as an increase in non-food inflation offset another drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate should resume its comedown in... 15th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly All eyes on the CBE, Saudi budget figures The unveiling of Egypt’s austere FY2023/24 Budget and the reinvigorated privatisation drive will help to ease some concern among investors of reform progress. But the critical thing to watch will be... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf: notes from the ground We were in the Gulf last week visiting clients and this Update takes stock of the key talking points that emerged, from a sense of optimism surrounding the Gulf economies to despair and fear regarding... 11th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy contracts in Q1, set for a weak 2023 Flash GDP figures showed that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted in Q1 on the back of OPEC+-agreed oil output cuts, but growth in the non-oil economy remained strong. The “voluntary” oil production... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
