Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens

Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity...

14th August 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train?

The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as...

10th August 2023 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban

It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water...

4th August 2023 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut

The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject...

3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Jul. 23)

July’s batch of PMIs for the region were a mixed bag, with the surveys from the Gulf falling back as they did in many other emerging markets but still pointing to robust non-oil activity. Elsewhere...

3rd August 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 2023, Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the economy fell into a technical recession on the back of oil output cuts, whereas the non-oil economy continued to post robust growth. With the Kingdom...

31st July 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi sporting focus, Egypt dollar draw, Tunisia loan

Saudi Arabia’s Pro League went from the back pages to the front pages this week after Al-Hilal record bid for PSG’s Kylian Mbappé. While the news has put renewed attention on the Kingdom’s sporting...

27th July 2023 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi-UAE relations, Saudi inflation, Egyptian LNG

A recent report in the Wall Street Journal suggests that tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased. This may raise the threat of the UAE leaving OPEC+, which would result in global oil...

20th July 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt privatisations, Dubai real estate

A round of state asset sales announced in Egypt this week suggests that there is fresh impetus behind the privatisation drive and that the government is pushing to get the IMF deal back on track. But...

13th July 2023 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2023)

This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use...

12th July 2023 · 1 min read

Commodities Weekly

Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals

Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were...

7th July 2023 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil, UAE energy & mortgages, Morocco GDP

The announcement by Saudi Arabia that it will roll over its voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut through August has led us to downwardly revise our GDP growth forecast for this year. The UAE has been much...

6th July 2023 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi non-oil sector softening blow from oil output cuts

Activity in Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector has continued to hold up well, but that is merely cushioning the blow to the economy from oil output cuts.

5th July 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Jun. 2023)

June’s batch of PMIs for the region improved almost entirely across the board and the strength in the Gulf states marked a stark contrast to the weakness among other emerging market regions. Elsewhere...

5th July 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt long-run prospects, Morocco autos, the Hajj

Egypt’s economy is on a path to become the largest in the region by 2050, overtaking Saudi Arabia, but this will hinge on the authorities committing to orthodoxy and undertaking key structural reforms...

28th June 2023 · 6 mins read