Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Qatar-Germany gas deal It seems likely that OPEC+ will opt to continue with October’s agreement to cut output quotas by 2mn bpd when the group meets on Sunday. That said, there are further signs that the group will become... 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the... 24th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack North Africa turns to IMF to ease external strains Economies across North Africa have endured severe balance of payments strains this year and governments in Egypt and Tunisia finally secured staff-level agreements with the IMF over the past month... 23rd November 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisation, Saudi investment, Qatar World Cup Egypt’s state ownership policy document could come into effect in before the end of this year, but it remains to be seen how willing the authorities are to relinquish their control over the economy... 17th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation eased a touch from 3.1% y/y in September to 3.0% y/y in October (Consensus: 3.0% y/y; CE: 2.8% y/y) and we think the headline rate will continue to slow heading into 2023. 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi banking sector, UAE-Saudi quarrel, COP27 The surge in Saudi interbank rates in recent weeks could cause credit growth to slow more quickly than we currently expect. Elsewhere, reports point to growing discontent in the UAE with Saudi Arabia... 3rd November 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Oct.) October’s batch of PMIs picked up in most of the region but there remains a stark divergence in growth prospects between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s economy posted a strong 2.6% q/q expansion in Q3, driven in large part by rising oil output. The subsequent OPEC+ cuts mean that that boost will fade over the coming quarters and we... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil output cuts to drive sharper Gulf slowdown OPEC+ cut its oil production quotas by 2mn bpd in November and strong compliance with the agreement will hit GDP growth in the Gulf economies harder than other members of the group. The result is that... 26th October 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The IMF & MENA, Saudi’s industry strategy, oil demand Tunisia’s staff-level agreement with the IMF for a new deal should reduce concerns of a messy balance of payments crisis, but a sovereign debt restructuring still looks likely. Egypt, meanwhile, looks... 20th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Saudi relations, Lebanon maritime deal, Tunisia crisis The past week has brought further evidence that the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the US has soured after OPEC+ opted to cut oil quotas – Saudi Arabia is clearly leaning away from the US orbit... 13th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation edged up to 3.1% y/y in September largely due to stronger food and housing inflation, but we think that the headline rate has now peaked and will drop back over the coming months and... 13th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ decision fallout, Egypt’s IMF deal The decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd from November will fall disproportionately on the Gulf members - Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. This clearly presents a downside risk... 6th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update OPEC+ cut highlights Saudi shift away from the US Yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production quotas by 2mn bpd adds to signs that, in a world economy that is fracturing, Saudi Arabia is tilting away from the US and leaning towards a China... 6th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response PMIs (Sep.) The batch of PMIs for September continued to paint a picture of economic divergence between the Gulf economies and the rest of the Middle East and North Africa. With fiscal policy set to be loosened... 4th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Lebanon re-pegging, Morocco rates, MbS to PM Reports suggest that OPEC+ is weighing up a cut to output quotas for the second meeting in a row next week, presenting a downside risk to our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts in the Gulf... 29th September 2022 · 6 mins read
