Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi economy set for strongest growth in a decade

Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed a strong Q2, growing by a rapid 12.2% y/y, and timely data point to a robust third quarter as well. However, the recent cautious approach taken by OPEC+ towards oil...

13th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ decision, a flexible EGP, inflation in MENA

OPEC+’s decision to cut oil output quotas by 100,000bpd at Monday’s meeting and subsequent comments from the Saudi energy minister highlight the group’s wariness of a global recession and we expect...

8th September 2022 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

PMIs (Aug.)

August’s batch of PMIs showed that activity in the Gulf economies pulled further ahead of their non-Gulf counterparts even as external demand has weakened on the back of softer global growth...

5th September 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Inflationary pressures building

Headline inflation has risen further across the region in recent months. This has been most pronounced in the non-Gulf economies which have been particularly exposed to spillovers from the war in...

30th August 2022 · 10 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s hurdles to an IMF deal, Saudi threatens oil cut

Egypt appears to be edging closer toward reaching a new IMF deal with officials having made positive steps in recent months to address the exchange rate, fiscal policy, and structural reforms, all of...

25th August 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Saudi inflation picked up to 2.7% y/y in July due to strengthening underlying price pressures, but we think that it is now at or close to a peak and will gradually fall back over the rest of this year...

15th August 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt: PIF steps up investment; CBE rate hike on the cards

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has stepped up investments into Egypt this week that will help to ease external financing concerns. At the same time, electricity rationing will begin next week...

11th August 2022 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

PMIs (Jul.)

July’s batch of PMIs were a mixed bag, but the readings reinforce our view that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf remains strong. Meanwhile, there were further signs that price pressures are...

3rd August 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi economy at the top of the pack

The rapid headline 11.8% y/y GDP growth recorded in Saudi Arabia in Q2 masked underlying weakness in non-oil sectors of the economy. Even so, Saudi Arabia is a relative bright spot in the global...

1st August 2022 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

President Biden heads to Saudi, Dubai PMI

US President Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia tomorrow will focus on Iran, the normalisation of ties with Israel and raising oil output more quickly to push global prices down and ease inflation...

14th July 2022 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

Saudi inflation rose a touch in June, to 2.3% y/y, on the back of higher food inflation. While we think that the headline rate will drift higher over the next couple of months months, it is unlikely...

14th July 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

A strong first half of the year for the Saudi economy

The Saudi economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in Q1 and we think this strength will carry through to the rest of 2022. Our GDP growth forecast of 10% for this year lies well above the...

12th July 2022 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Oil price falls, Saudi & UAE fiscal loosening, PMIs

Oil prices have fallen over the past month as global recession fears have mounted but, while they are likely to decline further over the coming years, they will remain high by past standards. This...

7th July 2022 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Data Response

S&P Global PMIs (Jun.)

June’s PMIs were the proverbial mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that activity in the Gulf economies has remained robust and there are signs that firms are increasingly passing on higher costs to...

5th July 2022 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

SAMA likely has more to do to ease liquidity concerns

Reports that the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) has injected liquidity into the banking sector appears to be a consequence of a lack of FX intervention (despite high oil prices), tight fiscal policy and...

30th June 2022 · 5 mins read