Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf slowdown underway After a stellar performance for most of 2022, the Gulf economies are slowing. Primarily, that has reflected the impact of oil production cuts agreed with the rest of OPEC+ which is weighing on growth... 23rd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM investment: weak outlook and clear divergence EM investment surged far above pre-pandemic levels last year, but there was a clear divergence across countries and we think investment growth will slow in 2023. One worrying development is that... 20th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai GRE debts, Tunisia’s IMF deal, Saudi real estate Dubai’s economic backdrop has improved markedly in the past year or so and has provided government-related entities with room to breathe in the face of large debt repayments this year, including a $5... 16th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan. 2023) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate nudged up from 3.3% y/y in December to 3.4% y/y in January, which came on the back of a small increase in non-food inflation. Inflation is now at or very close... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi external position, PMIs, Egypt privatisation Recent data showed that Saudi Arabia recorded its largest current surplus since late 2014 in Q3 of last year as oil revenues boomed. The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is recycling these surpluses into... 9th February 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt privatisations, Saudi tourism, Lebanon re-pegs Egypt’s privatisation drive appears to be stepping up a gear in 2023 with plans to sell stakes in twenty companies which, if these materialise, will boost long-term economic prospects. But it remains... 2nd February 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4 2022, Flash Estimate) The flash estimate for Saudi Arabia’s economy showed GDP expanded by a solid 1.5% q/q in Q4, but year-on-year growth continued to soften and we expect this slowdown to continue into the early part of... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy losing steam Saudi Arabia’s economy enjoyed bumper growth in 2022, but there were signs that activity was slowing in the final months of the year and we expect this trend to continue into the early part of 2023. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi and the “petroyuan”, investors like EGP fall Comments by Saudi Arabia’s finance minister that the Kingdom could conduct trade in currencies other than the dollar will add fuel to the debate about the rise of a “petroyuan”. There are hurdles to... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What do the latest falls in the EGP mean for Egypt? The Egyptian pound has pared its losses after sharp falls against the dollar on Wednesday in a sign that, just like 2016, the currency may have overshot. The central bank may sense an opportunity to... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Door still open for fiscal loosening in the Gulf The slide in the price of oil since November has a little further to go in early 2023 and, while we think prices will recover later in the year, hydrocarbon revenues in the Gulf will be lower than... 21st December 2022 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation ticked down to 2.9% y/y in November on the back of a drop in food inflation. We think the headline rate will continue to fall back toward 2.0% y/y over the course of 2023. And, if... 15th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly N. African IMF deals, Saudi Budget, China-Saudi relations The IMF Executive Board is set to approve Egypt’s deal next week, but it’s notable that Tunisia staff-level agreement doesn’t seem to be on the Board’s agenda and the uncertainty will add to threat of... 8th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Nov.) November’s batch of PMIs provide further evidence that the non-oil sectors in the Gulf economies are rounding off the year on a strong footing. 5th December 2022 · 2 mins read
