Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, wiring shortage a fillip to North Africa The Iran nuclear deal appears to be on the brink of being revived and, were that to happen, the lifting of sanctions would provide a major direct boost to Iran’s economy. Increased oil output could... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Fed tightening affect the Gulf? Central banks in the Gulf will have to follow the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates by virtue of their dollar pegs, which will weigh on domestic demand and recoveries in non-oil sectors... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation rose to 1.6% y/y in February, and we think that it will continue to strengthen over the coming months on the back of increasing food prices, peaking at around 2.5% y/y in Q3. 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The war in Ukraine and Saudi oil policy Saudi Arabia has so far resisted pressure from the US to raise oil production in order to dampen prices but, with Russian oil production and exports set to be disrupted, we think that a move in this... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery gets back on track After a small hit to activity earlier in the year on the back of the Omicron wave, Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery appears to have strengthened more recently. The Kingdom is not overly exposed... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf rebounded after the short-lived disruption from the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What does the Russia-Ukraine crisis mean for MENA? This morning Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and, for oil producers in the Gulf, the further rise in oil prices is positive for their economies. But for others in the region, the... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF equity transfer, Russia-Ukraine crisis The transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco from the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will not diversify government revenues away from oil as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would like to... 17th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi mortgage boom brings new risks Mortgage lending in Saudi Arabia has ramped up sharply in recent years as the government has tried to push up homeownership among Saudi nationals. This has not provided much of a boost to property... 15th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi inflation stabilised at 1.2% y/y in January and, while we think it will increase over the coming months, it is likely to hover around 1.0-1.5% over the rest of 2022 and 2023. 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4, Flash) & Egypt Inflation (Jan.) Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.6% q/q in the final quarter of 2021 and we think rising oil production will drive above-consensus growth this year. Elsewhere, Egypt’s... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE corporation tax, Egypt-EU trade spat, OPEC+ The UAE’s plan to introduce a corporation tax next year will help to diversify public revenues away from oil and may provide Dubai’s government with greater resources to step in if corporate debt... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of this year as governments tightened restrictions to tackle fresh Omicron-driven virus... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
