Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Nov.) Nigerian inflation picked up again in November, driven mostly by rising food inflation. We think that the headline rate will continue to climb over the coming months and that policymakers will leave... 17th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal risks to return Given the government’s tendency to overspend in election years, we think that Ghana’s budget deficit will rise to about 8% of GDP next year. This will heighten investor concerns and put pressure on... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Another year of recession, mounting debt The Angolan currency’s recent fall will push up inflation and increase the debt-to-GDP ratio even further. While we don’t think that default is an imminent risk, the government will have to tighten... 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Election clouds robust growth outlook Côte d’Ivoire’s upcoming elections in 2020 raise political risks facing the economy. But our core view is that the vote will pass peacefully, and that looser fiscal policy combined with more... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Economy weathers drought Kenya’s economy remained weak in Q2, but there are signs that the key agricultural sector has held up pretty well given this year’s drought. With the drag from the sector easing, GDP growth will pick... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery loses momentum Activity data for July suggest that South Africa’s recovery lost steam at the start of Q3. We remain comfortable with our below-consensus growth forecast of 0.5% for this year as a whole. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recovery already waning Despite the slight improvement in the manufacturing sector, the batch of activity figures for July suggests that South Africa’s economic recovery in Q2 faded at the start of Q3. This adds to reasons... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: large CA deficit points to slowdown ahead Uganda’s balance of payments position is looking increasingly unsustainable. The currency is likely to weaken and domestic demand is set to slow. We think that GDP growth will be a lot weaker than... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown deepened in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further in Q2, to just 1.0% y/y, as the drag from the oil sector intensified. We think that GDP growth will be even softer in the coming... 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: Growth set to slow After picking up a touch this year, we think that economic growth in Tanzania will slow in 2020 and in 2021. President John Magufuli’s increasingly erratic policymaking will deter investment while... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) The drop in PMIs across the Gulf in July suggests that the pick-up in growth in non-oil sectors in the first half of 2019 has started to go into reverse. If oil prices stay low and fiscal policy... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMI figures were robust across the Gulf, but we expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter and fiscal policy becomes less supportive. Meanwhile, subdued price pressures in Egypt mean... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s slowdown extends into Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further at the start of Q2 as the drag from the oil sector intensified and the recent pick-up in the non-oil sector started to peter out. We... 25th June 2019 · 3 mins read
