Africa Economics Weekly Eurobond-bonanza? SA’s current account in full swing African policymakers seem to be turning increasingly to international bond markets to finance budget deficits this year, which could add to existing debt vulnerabilities in Ghana and Nigeria... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: lockdown-hit to industry will ease… a bit Tighter virus containment measures imposed in late-2020 in South Africa weighed on manufacturing and mining output in January. We think that industrial activity picked up more recently, but the... 11th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pandemic toll on Africa’s tourism sectors will stay high Even as Sub-Saharan Africa gradually opens its doors to visitors, tourism sectors in the region face serious hurdles and we think that African economies dependent on the industry may be one of the... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) The slowdown in the pace of South Africa’s recovery in Q4 was less sharp than expected, but the economy is unlikely to gather much momentum over the coming quarters and we still expect GDP to be... 9th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Fewer SA curbs, more SDRs, who knows what in Nigeria Improving virus numbers allowed South Africa to ease containment measures this week, which is likely to inject much-needed momentum into the recovery. A mooted increase in the IMF’s SDR allocations... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: another unconvincing devaluation The reported (but unconfirmed) devaluation of one of Nigeria’s exchange rates would help to improve the public finances, but it would keep already strong price pressures elevated. We doubt that the... 3rd March 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in February suggests that the economy bounced back from around the turn of the year, and the recent easing of lockdown measures should support activity... 1st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Investment hopes & dreams in SA, rand in the line of fire South Africa’s push to increase public investment, outlined in the 2021 budget speech, is likely to prove to be a damp squib. Meanwhile, the rand took a beating in recent days amidst a rout in global... 26th February 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s “non-austerity” austerity budget The South African 2021 budget unveiled today was anything but the “non-austerity” budget that Finance Minister Tito Mboweni claimed he was presenting. Indeed, the fiscal plans imply significant... 24th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Setting the scene for SA’s budget, Zambia’s rate hike South Africa’s budget speech next Wednesday will be closely watched for any changes in the government’s fiscal consolidation plans - any signs that officials are wavering on austerity could trigger a... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2020) Nigeria’s Q4 GDP data showed that a poor performance in the oil sector was more than offset by a continued rebound in the non-oil economy. While we think that some of the headwinds facing the economy... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA probably dodged double-dip recession in Q4 South Africa’s hard activity data for December suggest that the economy avoided contraction in Q4, but the pace of the recovery slowed and is likely to remain weak. 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 16.5% y/y in January, on the back of surging food price pressures, is likely to increase pressure on the central bank (CBN) to tighten monetary policy. But as... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine confusion, the humdrum of SONA Disappointing news from a trial of the AstraZeneca vaccine against the South African variant of COVID-19 will further complicate vaccination campaigns across the region, and could delay recoveries... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: strong end to 2020, but weak start to 2021 The upside surprise in South Africa’s mining and manufacturing output in December is unlikely to be repeated in early 2021. Tighter virus containment measures and continued power cuts probably mean... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Another blow to vaccine distribution in Africa Disappointing vaccine developments mean that policymakers in Africa could be forced to keep restrictions on activity in place for longer, delaying economic recoveries and deepening scarring effects. 8th February 2021 · 3 mins read
