Africa Economics Update October data confirm slowdown in SA economy South Africa’s hard activity data for October serve as a reality check following a decent rebound in GDP in Q3, suggesting that the pace of the recovery slowed markedly at the start of Q4. A second... 10th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight drop in South African inflation, to 3.2% y/y in November, will probably be followed by similarly soft readings in the near term. This, coming alongside a lacklustre economic recovery, means... 9th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) The stronger-than-expected rebound in South Africa’s GDP in Q3 is overshadowed by more recent data pointing to a stuttering recovery. And concerns about a second wave of COVID-19 as well as harsh... 8th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in November points to the recovery hitting the brakes in the middle of Q4 and, while recent developments regarding vaccines have brightened the... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flip-flops, policymakers in financing pickle Mixed signals from recent policy announcements in Nigeria raise doubts about the administration’s commitment to pro-business reforms, especially in relation to the currency. At least the government... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in South African inflation, to 3.3% y/y in October, was driven by stronger food inflation and so is unlikely to be a major concern for the Reserve Bank. Subdued core price pressures and a... 25th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian policymakers in a bind, but easing to resume Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% today, highlighting the dilemma they face due to high inflation and a weak economy. But we think that the central bank will, on... 24th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy suffering two-speed recovery Nigeria’s Q3 GDP data showed that ongoing weakness in the oil sector was more than offset by a rebound in the non-oil economy and we expect this two-speed recovery to continue over the coming quarters... 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly “Vaccine boost” to take time, let’s talk about debt A string of good news from COVID-19 vaccine producers may be followed by further positive updates in the coming weeks, but it is likely to take longer for the “vaccine boost” to reach much of Sub... 20th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Split SARB decision signals policy to stay loose Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, but the close decision underlines lingering concerns about a weak recovery and subdued inflation. Even in the Reserve... 19th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Much ado about South Africa’s recovery South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to a lacklustre economic recovery in Q3 but this is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank to deliver further monetary stimulus at tomorrow’s MPC... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in Nigerian inflation in October, to 14.2% y/y, will probably prevent policymakers from continuing their easing cycle next week. But we think that further cuts lie in store in early 2021. 16th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccines and wars... recoveries and restrictions... The announcement this week of a successful trial of a COVID-19 vaccine is without doubt good news, but the economic gains for Africa may not be as sweeping as many might hope. Meanwhile, Ethiopia... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s industrial activity inching up The easing of containment measures in South Africa in September supported industrial activity, but the recovery remains sluggish. Leading indicators suggest that the pace of recovery waned further in... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Clashes in Ethiopia place dark cloud over outlook The escalation of political tensions in Ethiopia into outright military conflict threatens to morph into civil war that would push the economy into a deep recession and raise the risk of a sovereign... 10th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopian tinderbox, soft South African recovery Frictions between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray region turned into military confrontation this week, which will inflict damage not only on the population but also on the economy. In... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
