Africa Economics Weekly SA trade data, oil producers in the line of fire South Africa’s external sector probably shifted from being an economic tailwind to a headwind in the second quarter. Meanwhile, Africa’s oil producers are facing mounting pressure from OPEC to comply... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI reading offered mixed messages once again in June, but the business activity component suggests that activity in the sector continued to recover from April’s... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) The fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q1 provides an early sign of the massive economic hit from the country’s severe lockdown measures and supports our view that further interest rate cuts lie in store. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Grim budget in SA, Nigeria’s FX buzz and debt woes South Africa’s emergency budget highlighted that the government plans to turn to harsh austerity to try to deal with the legacy of higher debt, but this is unlikely to be politically sustainable in... 26th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) The slight increase in Nigerian inflation in May, to 12.4% y/y, will probably be followed by further rises over the coming months, but we still think that more interest rate cuts lie in store later... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s finances, debt relief uptake on the rise Nigeria’s revised budget for 2020 is nearing a final hurdle of approval, but the deficit will probably exceed the government's expectations. And despite the recent rise in oil prices and easing... 12th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South African lockdown causing activity to collapse Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus and South Africa’s lockdown measures are taking a heavy toll on the economy and supports our view that the economy will decline sharply over the year as a... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s lockdown to give way to slow recovery Even after further easing of South African lockdown measures last week, a quarter of the economy remains closed. And the impact of the lockdown on unemployment and insolvencies will cause long-lasting... 10th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how low can rates go? A look at South Africa’s recent history would suggest that the monetary easing cycle has further to run. We now expect an additional 75bp of cuts in the coming months, taking the repo rate from the... 2nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) The rise in the business activity component of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI shows that conditions in the sector improved in May, having come almost to a standstill in April. With manufacturing... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian monetary easing: better late than never We think that today’s 100bp interest rate cut by the Nigerian central bank, to 12.50%, will be followed by further loosening as economic recovery proves weaker than the central bank expects. We have... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update End of South Africa’s easing cycle approaching South African policymakers continued to cut interest rates today, taking the repo rate down by 50bp to 3.75%, but the end of the easing cycle appears to be on the horizon. At this stage, we expect one... 21st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s budget proposal, SA economy reawakening The amendments to the 2020 budget approved by Nigeria’s cabinet this week suggest that the government is not yet fully facing up to the fiscal damage caused by the coronavirus. Elsewhere, flickers of... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Survey blues in South Africa, Nigeria’s budget woes Figures published in South Africa this week gave an early indication of the scale of economic devastation caused by the country’s lockdown. The risks to our forecast for a 6.5% fall in GDP this year... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update African downturn and recovery paths to diverge Low-profile data suggest that the economic damage caused by lockdowns in some of the poorer economies in Africa will be more moderate than in higher-income countries. But the economic pain could be... 6th May 2020 · 3 mins read
