Africa Economics Weekly (Un)Common Framework, a little cheer in South Africa Zambia has become the latest country – after Chad and Ethiopia – to seek debt restructuring under the G20’s Common Framework, but tough negotiations lie ahead and few other countries are likely to go... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in January appears to hide underlying weakness in activity on the back of virus-related restrictions. Even with some signs of a break in the clouds over... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Different IMF takes on fiscal policy, Nigeria’s funding gap The IMF’s campaign encouraging governments to broaden fiscal support to prop up recoveries does not seem to extend far and wide. While the Fund appears to be backing a pause in Kenya’s fiscal... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update High inflation limits CBN’s scope for easing, for now The recent rise in inflation appears to have stayed the hand of Nigeria’s central bank from delivering more monetary easing at today’s MPC meeting. But, as price pressures drop back towards the end of... 26th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s state guarantee snub, vaccine round-up The South African government’s decision this week to provide no further debt guarantees to state-owned lender Land Bank underscores the mounting pressure on the public purse. And even with some... 22nd January 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hunkering down for long period of low rates Policymakers in South Africa looked through the recent virus-related deterioration in economic conditions and kept the policy rate unchanged, at 3.50%, today. As the recovery struggles to gain... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil price rally will ease African producers’ pain...a bit The rise in oil prices this year is likely to prove insufficient to remove strains in African oil producers’ balance sheets. Currencies in Nigeria and Angola will have to weaken further, and... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine AUphoria?, polls in Uganda, debt relief demand The announcement that the African Union (AU) has secured a large COVID-19 vaccine order is a positive step towards Africa’s recovery from the coronavirus crisis, but the road remains long and bumpy... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 15.8% y/y in December, on the back of mounting food price pressures will probably take monetary easing off the table in the near term. 15th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in December points to the recovery grinding to a halt at the end of 2020. The recent tightening of virus containment measures, and the slow and limited... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: renewed restrictions to stymie recovery Recently-announced measures to curb South Africa’s second wave of COVID-19 will probably throw the economic recovery off course, with GDP likely to contract in Q1 if restrictions are extended. We... 4th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly COVAX concerns, momentum at Eskom, Zambian mines Reports this week pointing to the multilateral COVAX facility’s high risk of failure underline that the roll-out of vaccines for many African countries is likely to be slow, delaying the ensuing... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update 2021 in focus: what lies ahead for Sub-Saharan Africa After the storm of 2020, policymakers in Sub-Saharan Africa will be hoping for calm in 2021. But with vaccine distribution posing a key challenge in the region, economic recoveries may be slower than... 16th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Another jump in Nigerian inflation, to 14.9% y/y in November, will probably be followed by elevated readings in the coming months. But as the headline rate peaks, probably in early 2021, we think that... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s dance with the IMF, restrictions looming in SA The confirmation this week that Zambia requested an IMF funding program is a positive step, which is likely to improve the chances of a wider debt restructuring deal with external creditors. Meanwhile... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: fiscal tightening can’t be delayed forever Victory for Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana’s presidential election this week increases the likelihood of fiscal stimulus in the near term, which would support the economic recovery. But the precarious state... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
