Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The huge fall in South Africa’s GDP in Q2 confirms our pessimistic outlook for the economy and, with fiscal austerity on the horizon, the recovery will be weak. Policymakers at the central bank will... 8th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly US aid to Ethiopia on ice, debt relief state of play The US’s move to suspend some aid to Ethiopia amid tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam risks further actions that would limit Ethiopia’s fiscal space. Meanwhile, momentum to expand a... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The jump in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August confirms that the sector was boosted as the country eased lockdown restrictions further. But with power cuts becoming a problem once again and... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation will probably hover near July’s reading, of 3.2% y/y, in the coming months and, as the economic recovery wavers, we think that more monetary easing lies in store. 26th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Pressure on the Kenyan shilling to persist Kenya’s current account deficit will probably widen in the coming quarters and could reach as much as 6.5% of GDP over this year as a whole. We expect the shilling to continue to depreciate against... 25th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q2 2020) Nigeria’s GDP nose-dived in Q2 and we think the recovery will be held back by continuing oil production cuts, losses in employment and income and limited fiscal stimulus. 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s limited fiscal space bites, SA banks in spotlight Nigerian government spending proposals for 2021, floated this week, signal just how much of a bind the authorities are in. Letting the naira weaken would be one way to address the large budget deficit... 21st August 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: lockdown easing, but clouds hang over outlook The announcement over the weekend that South Africa is further easing containment measures will probably give a much-needed boost to activity as much of the economy is allowed to reopen. But it looks... 17th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Covid cases fall in SA, security risks to Mozambican gas 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics SA suffers one of the world's worst downturns in Q2 The hard activity data from South Africa released this week confirm that the country suffered one of the largest falls in output in Q2 anywhere in the world, at around 22% q/q (63% q/q on an... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB under pressure Growing pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) to do more to support the economy and finance the government is unlikely to result in a major shift in policymaking over the next year or two... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Investments under threat in Nigeria and South Africa Foreign investments into the biggest economies in Sub-Saharan Africa took a blow this week. We think that the announcement of a major food retailer’s exit from Nigeria may be representative of the... 7th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The drop in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI provided the first strong signal that the sector’s rebound has stalled in recent weeks. With the authorities struggling to bring the virus under control... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s monetary easing on pause… for now Following today’s decision to keep interest rates on hold, we think that Nigerian policymakers will cut interest rates once more this year as inflation stabilises and the economic recovery proves... 20th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) South African inflation plunged to 2.1% y/y in May, which probably takes it near the trough. But even as price pressures start to pick up, the headline rate will remain very subdued, allowing the... 15th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA manufacturing sector one of the worst hit across EMs Hard activity data from South Africa confirm that the economy has been among the hardest hit across major EMs by the coronavirus crisis and, while the lockdown has been eased in recent months, we... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
