Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate crept up to 3.2% y/y in March but this was almost entirely due to energy price effects that will become more pronounced this quarter. In contrast, underlying... 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Delayed vaccination in SA, dovish SARB, downbeat IMF The announcement this week that South Africa is suspending the roll-out of Johnson&Johnson vaccines, on which it heavily relies, risks further delaying an already slow vaccine campaign. Meanwhile... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 18.2% y/y in March, will probably reinforce the views of the hawkish minority on the central bank’s MPC. Our base case is that the majority of MPC members... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s recovery back on (a slow) track South Africa’s hard activity data for February show that the recovery resumed following a January slump on the back of a second virus wave. While the economy will probably finish Q1 on a stronger note... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt relief stop gaps, South Africa’s jabs A flurry of global action this week to help improve low-income countries’ balance sheets is likely to provide only short-term relief and, in the meantime, efforts to provide longer-lasting help to... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s manufacturing sector: a crawling recovery The road to recovery in South Africa’s manufacturing sector will probably be slow and bumpy. Weak domestic demand and persistent power cuts will act as key headwinds, although export-oriented sectors... 8th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Not hopping on the bandwagon of EM rate hikes Central banks in Sub-Saharan Africa bucked a recent “trend” of interest rate hikes in other emerging markets this month. Policymakers in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Angola all kept their... 30th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No getaway from tourism woes for some time Particularly weak recoveries lie in store for tourism-dependent emerging markets, including much of Africa, parts of the Middle East (e.g. Jordan), and South East Asia (e.g. Cambodia). A lacklustre... 29th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA monetary policy going its own way, naira to and fro South Africa’s monetary policy stance is likely to remain accommodative for some time, going against market expectations and the projection model of the Reserve Bank. In Nigeria, officials continued... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB shrugs off bond market ruckus Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today, breaking a recent wave of EM central bank decisions to tighten policy. We suspect that the country’s weak economic... 25th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 2.9% y/y, in February almost certainly rules out a hike in interest rates at Thursday’s MPC meeting. We think that the repo rate will remain... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: hawkish minority unlikely to become majority Policymakers in Nigeria opted to keep their benchmark rate unchanged at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting in the face of rising inflation and a weak recovery. We don’t think that a hawkish minority will... 23rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria stuck in stagflation, changing winds in Tanzania The past week has brought further evidence that Nigeria is suffering from stagflation and we suspect it’s a ‘chronic condition’ arising from poor policy choices rather than an ‘acute disease’. In... 19th March 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal policy: the good, the bad and the ugly Nigeria’s budget deficit is set to narrow sharply this year as oil revenues increase and the government fails to meet ambitious capital spending plans. The shortfall should be easily covered by... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: weak recovery to follow January slump South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that virus-related restrictions meant that the economy started the year on a very weak footing. We think that the recovery will struggle to gain much... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 17.3% y/y in February is unlikely to prompt the central bank to tighten monetary policy as concerns about a weak recovery mount. 16th March 2021 · 2 mins read
