Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Despite a muted monthly rise in prices, inflation jumped to 2.2% in March due to base effects. It will surpass 3% in April for the same reason. While inflation should then ease, we expect it to remain... 21st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Mar.) House price inflation according to the Teranet index surpassed 10% in March for the first time since 2017, and the high sales-to-new listing ratio implies it will continue to accelerate. 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government sets out stimulus worth 4.4% of GDP The additional stimulus outlined in today’s Budget was in line with our expectations and, while a few of the proposals will raise eyebrows, the total package should help to support a strong economic... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly All eyes on Budget 2021 and the Bank of Canada We expect the government to unveil further stimulus measures worth a little more than 4% of GDP next week, and anticipate a slightly more dovish message from the Bank of Canada than markets are... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) The 1.6% m/m fall in manufacturing sales in February was primarily due to the negative effect on the auto sector of the global semiconductor shortage. While that shortage has persisted into March and... 15th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to trim asset purchases despite third wave The Bank of Canada is set to cut the pace of its asset purchases next week. While it will also upgrade its GDP forecasts, we expect it to make an offsetting change to its estimate of the economy’s... 14th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices vulnerable to higher interest rates House prices look increasingly vulnerable to future rises in interest rates. While the economy coped well the last time the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes shook the housing market in 2017 and 2018, the... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys suggest that investment and consumption will recover strongly in the coming year, and are another reason to expect the Bank to trim its asset purchases next week... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly OSFI waters down the punch The proposal by the financial regulator OSFI, to raise the qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages, is unlikely to weigh on house prices. But by reducing the share of highly-leveraged borrowers, it... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The 303,000 jump in employment in March was far stronger than expected. While some of the gains will be reversed this month due to the tightening of coronavirus restrictions, that will prove temporary... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccinations and policy stimulus to drive recovery The third wave of COVID-19 means that the restrictions on activity will be in place for longer than we assumed, but the economy is poised to recover strongly once vaccinations reach a critical mass... 8th April 2021 · 19 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The global semiconductor shortage and severe winter weather in the US contributed to the falls in exports and imports in February, with the auto sector hit especially hard. Those shortages look set to... 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Third wave prompts new restrictions The data this week showed that the economy made a stronger start to the year than we previously thought, but the restrictions now being imposed to fight the third wave of the coronavirus suggest that... 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The economy’s stronger-than-expected performance at the start of 2021 bodes well for the recovery and is likely to further convince the Bank of Canada that it is time to reduce the pace of its asset... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rise as Bank cuts purchases Recent global developments and the signal this week from the Bank of Canada, that it is likely to cut its asset purchases sooner than we expected, lead us to think that Canadian bond yields will rise... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Booming housing market a challenge for the Bank The housing market has gathered more momentum in the past month and, if this continues, could prompt the Bank to tighten policy sooner than we anticipate. The Teranet measure of house price growth... 24th March 2021 · 9 mins read
