Canada Economics Update Bank may welcome strong loonie after inflation spike The Bank of Canada has voiced concern about the loonie although, following the signs of emerging inflationary pressures in April, it will probably be more welcoming of the disinflationary impact of... 20th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The large 0.6% m/m seasonally-adjusted rise in prices in April shows that the jump in inflation to 3.4% was not due to base effects alone. With firms’ selling price expectations elevated, we expect... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccinations now outpacing most countries After being constrained for months by a lack of supply, vaccinations in Canada are now outpacing those in every other G20 nation. Nevertheless, the cautious approach by policymakers suggest that... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The 2.3% m/m rise in March was not enough to prevent manufacturing sales volumes from falling during the first quarter. The sector should perform better in the second quarter, but sales volumes are... 14th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to be above 3% for most of the year We now expect inflation to surpass the upper limit of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% range for most of the rest of the year, but we continue to think that it will drop back to less than 2% in 2022. 13th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales decline for first time this year Home sales appear to have declined in April and further falls could act as a headwind to the recovery over the rest of the year. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The third coronavirus wave caused the labour market recovery to go into reverse in April and, with no imminent sign of the restrictions being eased, there is little chance of a meaningful rebound this... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Higher commodities prices another tailwind to growth The further strong rises in commodity prices present upside risks to our GDP forecasts, although the boost to growth is likely to be smaller than during previous periods of strong commodity price... 6th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The much stronger rise in imports than exports in March partly reflects the unwinding of temporary factors that weighed on imports in February. Net trade contributed positively to first-quarter GDP... 4th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem unfazed by upside risks to inflation Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the Bank of Canada remains committed to keeping interest rates low so long as the labour market remains weak, even if the upside risks to inflation... 30th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) At 0.4% m/m in February, GDP growth was a bit weaker than Stats Can first thought but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a much larger 0.9% m/m rise in GDP in March, first-quarter growth... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Construction boom raises questions about supply The ratio of homes under construction to population growth is at a record high, reflecting both the strength of housing starts and the weakness of immigration. While the boom in construction might... 29th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update Childcare plan could raise potential GDP growth The proposed national preschool system could increase the labour force, and therefore potential GDP, by 1.2%, but the impact will be spread over many years and might be dwarfed by changes to... 28th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The gains in retail sales in February and March are likely to be reversed this month, but the high level of consumer confidence suggests spending will recover quickly once the coronavirus restrictions... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank raises forecasts as government boosts support Reflecting the additional fiscal support confirmed in the 2021 Budget this week, the Bank of Canada has raised its GDP growth forecasts to be closer to our own. Nevertheless, we do not expect the Bank... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank trims asset purchases, may hike in late 2022 The Bank of Canada’s decision to trim its asset purchases and pull forward its guidance on interest rates confirms that it has become more upbeat about the economic outlook. We expect it to bring its... 21st April 2021 · 3 mins read
