The third wave of COVID-19 means that the restrictions on activity will be in place for longer than we assumed, but the economy is poised to recover strongly once vaccinations reach a critical mass, especially with the help of an additional investment-focused stimulus. We forecast GDP growth of 6.0% this year and 4.0% in 2022. As output will then be slightly above potential, we expect a slowdown to a more sustainable 2.3% in 2023.
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