Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Retail sales rose by 0.4% m/m in October, although the sharp falls in gasoline and clothing sales imply that the worsening coronavirus outbreak was beginning to bite. Even if retail sales continue to... 18th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to be above 2% for most of 2021 Recent developments suggest that inflation will recover more strongly in 2021 than we previously thought. We now expect inflation to be above 2% for most of the year, before dropping back in 2022. 17th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Nov.) House price inflation rose to 9% in November and is likely to surpass 10% in the first quarter. We expect house price inflation to slow sharply after that, but prices should keep rising throughout... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The higher-than-expected rate of inflation in November was mainly a statistical quirk resulting from continued difficulties in collecting price data for travel tours. The same effect could cause... 16th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What if households unleash their savings? Due to lower spending and the generosity of government transfers, households are set to save $200bn more in 2020 than in 2019. With that rise equivalent to 14% of consumption, there are upside risks... 15th December 2020 · 11 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Oct.) Manufacturing sales only edged up in October and the disruption from the coronavirus at home and abroad is likely to hold back growth in the next few months, but we are more positive about prospects... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-year high this week and, despite the pledge from the Bank of Canada that it will keep rates low across the yield curve, we think there is still scope for further... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank will probably stick to implicit yield curve control The key change to the Bank of Canada’s policy statement today was its commitment to “keep interest rates low across the yield curve”. This is in line with our view that, even as the economy rebounds... 9th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada stands out with new approach to fiscal policy Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hinted this week that the government will continue to provide fiscal stimulus until the economy reaches full employment. This is a far cry from concerns elsewhere... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Internat’nl Trade (Oct.) Employment outperformed expectations last month, but the additional coronavirus restrictions imposed since the November LFS survey was carried out lead us to think it will fall back in December. 4th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Latest restrictions unlikely to prompt further loosening The Bank of Canada’s forecasts already assumed a renewed hit to GDP from a further wave of COVID-19, so the latest restrictions have probably not altered its assessment of the outlook. We would... 2nd December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Economy to recover strongly after weak end to 2020 The recovery is set to go into reverse in December amid the latest coronavirus restrictions, and we now think GDP will stagnate over the first quarter. But the high effectiveness of the first COVID-19... 2nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 & Sep.) GDP expanded by a record 40.5% annualised in the third quarter, as the first lockdowns were lifted, but that still left it 5.3% below its pre-pandemic level. Some more lost ground appears to have been... 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government plans investment of up to 4.3% of GDP The government announced today that it expects to spend an additional $50bn this fiscal year to combat the damage from the second wave of the coronavirus. It also laid out plans for an investment... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Freeland to lay out investment plans There is now more pressure on Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to use the fall fiscal update next week to announce short-term measures to support the economy, but we still expect her to outline how... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Spending to underperform, but only in the near term Retail sales are likely to fall further behind those in the US amid the latest coronavirus-related restrictions, particularly because the Canadian data do a worse job at capturing online sales... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
